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Emergency measures the Spanish government to save energy - February 25, 2011.

apparent conflict between what you want and what you can.

Dear readers,

This past week he has had to reach the peak Libya of food riot (and prelude of chaos). Is the leading exporter of oil affected by the crisis of legitimacy of political regimes in the Arab world (the first oil producing country to be affected, Egypt, no longer exporting in 2009 and currently allocates its nearly 600,000 barrels a day production to consumption by its 80 million people - if only a quarter of English per capita consumption). Meanwhile, it remains unclear who will win the incipient civil war if Libya and the regime it will emerge will be able to resolve social inequalities that fueled the rebellion, failing fall in it (the same doubt in Tunisia and Egypt) as the festering conflict increases the risk of the country's oil infrastructure is severely affected, in the worst case scenario, a mad and almost defeated Qaddafi could his threat to destroy the infrastructure of oil exploration, or rather the lack of absolute power might bring in a few months to fighting between different tribes, which form the closest thing to a social fabric that has a Libya- several bands armed conflict and plunge the country into chaos, in either of these scenarios black oil production would fall to zero and the conflict would result in an even more terrible toll of suffering and destruction for the Libyan people. Meanwhile, more and more analysts complain that the lack of reaction from OPEC, which is not significantly increasing its production to compensate for the missing Libyan be because Saudi Arabia has any spare capacity (amount of oil could produce additional 30 days before and for a period of at least 90 days) of boasting. There is also a problem of fungibility : Libyan oil is low sulfur content, while the Saudi surplus is high and it can not be processed in the same refineries. In this scenario

of uncertainty, with the price of a barrel of crude oil ever closer to the highs (Brent barrel yesterday arrived sometime in $ 120) and the prices of petrol and diesel are already at their maximum 2008 (due to, among other factors, the extra pressure that China is buying increasing amounts of these fuels in the international market), the English Government has decided to approve today a package of emergency measures to prevent increased oil bill will finally bring the country to debt levels, given the confidence of international investors in Spain, would be impractical. In what follows I make a brief analysis of these measures and a preliminary assessment of its impact. Because I fear that in future it may take more measures of this kind I have included the same date in the title, God will say what the future holds.

first thing that stands out is that the proposed measures, which are of a certain caliber, have not been agreed with other European countries to be taken by all of them in tandem. Spain forming part of a common economic space, does not seem to make much sense to make decisions unilaterally, without waiting for consensus on a position with its economic partners. This urgency to the regular time in a country that has not characterized as the most proactive in taking anti-crisis measures conveys a certain anxiety to a server that write these lines I do not know if in this case have sought to demonstrate that for once we could anticipate the problems and is certainly the continued impact of rising oil and fuel was about to pass a bill lethal to Spain. We'll have to wait and see what host European leaders give to our actions.

The measure that has been most prominent in the English press is to reduce the speed limit of 120 kilometers per hour (only possible on highways and motorways) to 110 kilometers per hour. This measure stands while it was temporary and indefinite, which is inherently contradictory (a measure does not have an indefinite time frame set, then decided in the course of events, and therefore can not be sure if it's temporary or not). The Government argues that with this measure will reduce gasoline consumption by 15% and diesel by 11%. We do not know how is based reports to make this assertion, which is difficult to compare and quantify. On the one hand, in addition to losses due to friction with the road always present, depending on the car at speeds exceeding 80 kilometers per hour is subjected to a deceleration caused by turbulent drag (drag ), which depends among other factors, its coefficient of drag and the square of the speed at which you try to move. Since these speeds this turbulent friction is the dominant contribution to the resistance to movement of the vehicle, a speed reduction of 8.33% as the proposal would mean 16% reduction in energy consumption for other factors being equal and the same way (remember: work is force times distance , and with the throttle you do is make the work of friction against the movement of the vehicle). However, depending on the car the torque ratio is better for speed of 120 km / h to 110 km / h, so that going to 120 km / h, about 110 km / h, consumption is improved somewhat for this item. These differences should be the couple that justify the difference reported by the Government between the impact on savings of this measure as if the car is petrol and diesel. An interesting observation: the lower efficacy of this measure on diesel cars (ironically, by the better exploitation of the torque) provides a political incentive to in the future, imposing a lower speed limit for diesel cars over the gas, keep in mind that there are now greater pressure on the world market for diesel that on gasoline, as China, whose consumption is more industrial than recreational, buying more and more (maybe that extra pressure on diesel has led to some recent news that highlights the character most polluting diesel cars?) . However, in the real world there are other factors that influence one way or another possible efficiency gains for the ride: The engine, the conservation status of the vehicle ... and especially the style of driving. The blog EcoLab gives us some data to suggest that there may be a gain had significantly , here expressed in terms of reducing CO2 emissions, with this decrease in speed. Without knowing the technical source that justifies the government's decisions, there may be a decrease in consumption and to move in the ranges proposed by the Government.


A different question is the effectiveness of this measure. In Spain, people tend to lead to between 130 and 150 km / h on highways, 130 km / h is typical for that is within the range of uncertainty of radar and avoid a fine. A good friend of mine points out that perhaps that is what it is intended: to stop people from running on 130 and go to move to 120 (always abusing the inaccuracy of the radar) that implies an even greater fuel economy and might serve to justify the Government's figures. Anyway, does not seem likely to have much effect if there is a serious deployment of resources for control, and that exacerbated the unpopularity of the measure, which will be seen as tax collection. As for the economy of the measure, some argue rightly taxes that since over two-thirds of the price of fuel and therefore 2 / 3 of savings is actually income redistribution, since the opportunity cost of to slow the measure is, in fact, economically negative. Other means more belligerent with the Government reported whole package as inefficient as it prevents the free market arbitrage. The reality is that this measure makes sense only as a partial ration car use over long distances, which are not looking for economic efficiency but use restraint to avoid most of the inefficiencies of the market: shortages, even when the local measure to combat the effects can only cause local shortages. As we discussed at the time, to live a free market system with rationing may end up destabilizing a state , so that also has to think very well.



The second of the measures, the reduction of 5% of the bills from the state railway company, RENFE, in their journeys of transport equipment, aims to boost fuel economy indirectly used cars passing through the cities. Instead of operating by way of rationing the previous case, it operates by way of subsidy. Without doubt a market inefficiency forced, and certainly in the same spirit: to prevent shortages. It will be about the financial cost to the State of such action. Interestingly, the reduction does not extend to the Long Distance tenes, making clear that this measure complements to the above (*).

Finally, the third of three measures announced is that less has been said and yet the most serious of the three: the Government will force " increase to 7% the biodiesel in gasoline and diesel so far was 5.8% "(sic). Leaving aside the bad effect that makes the technical error (no doubt that they ought to mean is the "percentage of biofuels" blend gasoline with biodiesel does not think it's a good idea), this bill is a disaster. The funny thing is that probably has been well received by society, especially the latter clouded for the loss of paradise "limit of 120", according to the comments I read everywhere, in the end, are not the future of biofuels?. The reality shows that the three measures, this is the one that has more edges and side effects, some of which may have gone unnoticed by the Government itself:

1. This measure is a subsidy to the production sector biofuels, since by law they have to buy a larger production than today. Need to know if they can react in such a short time, and if that improvisation will have serious consequences in other sectors.
2. This measure is also an implicit rationing: bioethanol and biodiesel tend to, on average, 70% of energy from fossil equivalents, so going from 5.8% to 7% of the volume the new energy mix will increase from 98.26% of current fossil equivalent (98.3% of the heat content of conventional gasoline and diesel) to 97.90%, a loss of 0.36% of fossil heat content and reduction on the current mix of 0.37%. It is a small loss, but it is a loss to the end of the day: your car will be 0.37% less than miles.
3. The most serious of all consequences is that the increased demand for English introduce biofuels even more pressure on the international food market, as this article explains Washington Post, the consumption of biofuel crops in the world last year accounted for 6.5% of global grain and vegetable oil 8%. If even Krugman acknowledges that the price of food has been the trigger of conflict in North Africa , building on this road, which has a TER above very low (so that you are not gaining power, and apart from other problems already discussed ) is nonsense. Especially taking into account as we saw, that transition increases the risk of abrupt and chaotic global .

In short, the English Government is beginning to see the ears of the wolf now reacts with the hope that future circumstances allow you to retreat to a more comfortable setting (which may happen, indeed, after the following price spike, the second, but only until the third). Their proposals may fall short and will generate unwanted effects. It is clear that both kinds of timing should be carefully studied, for example, as did the International Energy Agency for many years with his report "Saving oil when we are in a hurry" (read it if you have time, it is very interesting, especially coming from a body that advises the governments of the OECD on these issues). or the British Chambers with the system as TEQs or tradable energy quotas .

regard to ordinary people: Printing and improvisation of government ineptitude. And as for the peakoiler, restlessness. We will have to remain vigilant.


Salu2,
AMT

(*) (Updated 26-II-2011, 22:30): A reader has informed me privately that the measure may not extend to the long distance because of the rules of competition in the European Union.

Main Components Of Fire Extinguisher

The right side of the Hubbert curve utility and futility

copyright: @ flickr macnimation

Dear readers,

On several occasions we have discussed here on non- -linearity of the processes that are implied by the arrival of Peak Oil or peak oil production. This non-linearity explains that the evolution of the variables we use to diagnose the behavior of the crisis is not a simple rule of three, but sometimes trigger large perturbations small effects, while at other times small perturbations trigger large effects. Worse, our diagnostic variables may have a poor ability to describe the situation. For example, we have discussed here several times the price of a barrel of oil, which is the variable preferred by economists because they expect that market signals unequivocally manifested by changes in price, has a confusing behavior because of the large of market volatility medium term, eg, the duration of the last period of stability until 2000, the price of oil did not exceed 20 dollars, from 2000 to 2007 was rising steadily, to around $ 100 in early 2008, in July of 2008 was worth almost $ 150 to drop to about $ 36 six months later and has since gradually increased again to just over $ 100 today. If 2011 is a remake of 2008 , with its new price spike and subsequent fall, recession means (such calculation with fingers that seemed to anticipate did here) is something that remains to be seen, given the multitude of actors and factors involved, and say anything for sure in this regard, even though it says it is quite impossible. What happens is that the signal sent prices amid global Peak Oil is not what economists expected, ie the same as sent during the 70 crisis: a lasting high prices. The difference is that in the 70's restriction of production was voluntary on the part of the Arab countries, and the variable used to control the restriction was just the price (increasing production if the price rose much, decreasing it if down) thus able to maintain high prices that squeezed a lot but without to choke off the western economy. Currently, no such control over production, so prices go up and up until a sufficiently large bursts importing economies, at that time, demand drops sharply.

So what characterizes the behavior of oil prices in the era of global production constraint is the volatility in the medium term (ie sharp ups and downs when you look within the range of years) with a increasing underlying trend for most of the time in the short term (on a scale of days, weeks and months) and a stable trend in the long term (the average price during periods of several years did not change significantly.) In short, the price series will take the form of irregular sawtooth. In addition, at a later stage and most degraded of the situation, where the proportion of production that OECD countries reduced even more important - by falling production and rising consumption in emerging countries - will have to impose restrictions on oil consumption in importing countries, either by way of ration declared (as the British proposal of TEQ) or discouraging consumption through increasingly complex regulations and laws that are justified to combat pollution, reduce traffic accidents, to promote the deployment of electric cars or any other excuse to use (that way a deterrent to tackle the problem without recognizing it seems to be why it has chosen Spain), there is also the option of doing nothing and let things alone collapse of the invisible hand of the market, but only in countries where democracy is weak we will choose that option. Therefore, no variable is the price that we should look to understand what is happening, but the total oil production.


However, the presence of other nonlinear effects but also make continuous Total oil production is an effective variable in determining what the situation is what really matters to our society and is the amount of net energy available to move our economy. On the one hand, because the effect of increased absorption capacity in emerging economies binds the effect of "Export Land Model" (Export Land Model), which we discussed here whereby producing countries are leading to steady exponential consumption to satisfy its own population, and this entails a reduction in exports (alarming sign of this trend, Saudi Arabia fell nearly 5% of its exports oil during the month of December ; to know what the economic situation and what the structure of this decline will have to wait a few months). To this must be added that the net energy available from various sources of energy, and oil in particular, is decreasing with time, as a result of increasingly poor Energy Rate of Return (ERR, in English the acronym used is EROEI), whose lethal effects were also discussed in this blog . Thus, we have the impression that the production of oil and similar fluids is maintained, even increasing, yet the energy that represents this volume may be decreasing without us noticing. This is for example the case with the production of ethanol from corn as fuel, especially in the U.S.; recent studies show that in the U.S. corn as an energy source has an EROEI of about 1 (with no wins energy produced), maybe even less (so it actually loses energy, but because of the subsidies is a profitable activity.) Taking into account that a quarter of grain production in the U.S. is intended to produce biofuels is another perverse feedback of the energy crisis: they spend X barrels of oil equivalent to produce same X barrels of oil equivalent, or even less, from cereals, for accounting purposes, the same power available has been recorded twice (ie, the official accounting record 2 X barrels of oil equivalent when in fact the first half was used to produce the second half), so that statistics show an encouraging message ("we are increasing our oil production") that is not reflected in the energy available in the street, and worst of all foods on the market retreated international prices exacerbating the crisis and unstabilized countries rely heavily on imported food.

If all these nonlinear effects complicate the understanding of the phenomenon we are experiencing a global scale, other effects affecting our ability to predict future events rigor and show that our security in our daily lives can be completely unfounded. Effects are denominated in Physics phase transition. A phase transition is a point in the evolution of one of the variables of the system, which the system reached radically change their behavior. All the world has ever experienced what is a phase transition: if you look at the temperature of a glass of water and lowered, to reach 0 degrees Celsius water behavior change radically stops flowing and becomes in a solid, ice. If one heats the water in a kitchen fire when it reaches 100 degrees Celsius will experience a change and turn to steam, which will be leaving the pot. The formation of rain, seed germination, death, all these natural processes are phase transitions. What characterizes phase transitions is that they are like a wall, a discontinuity, it was worth before remains true, and things become radically different. The reality is that our system has so much tension built up inside, so many things that hang by a thread, a small-or no-alteration much extra can trigger such a wave of changes that alter the landscape permanently.


a few weeks ago we analyzed the case of the current food riots in North Africa. Decades of bloody dictatorship, misery for most people, just exploiting synchronously in a dozen countries, and many others are in a very tense situation. Why now, why all at once? As already explained, the sudden rise in food prices in these countries with the removal of subsidies at the beginning of the year has been the most over the edge, despair, and despair, to revolt. In Tunisia and Egypt their leaders have been deposed, and in the West that has no conscience and attention has turned to other bastions of fueled us oil and gas could fall: Libya, Algeria , Oman, Yemen, Iran, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Morocco (which has no oil but phosphate) ... the list is endless. However, the game is not over in Egypt or Tunisia, followed by strikes and riots in developing countries. In essence, the iron falling to their princes, these countries have gone straight near the end of phase 3 of the collapse at least over large areas. Libya can be concluded from a stroke this stage, if it ends up in the civil war that could unleash. And no one knows where to complete this process.


In our previous analysis , we found a strong correlation between oil prices and food seems to be the trigger for these riots, after long decades of brutal repression. But it is also that in order to maintain our global oil production will need to discover and develop new fields, continuously, to be offsetting the decline of the wells already in operation; Look in the graphs that showed dramatic the last report of the International Energy Agency . But amid the current unrest, not only has nullified the Formula 1 Grand Prix of Bahrain, but the oil companies are evacuating their staff in Libya, which produces 1.8 million barrels per day, 2.1% of world production. If the situation is normalized in the coming months we will find that oil production next year will, of necessity, significantly lower than this. Following this loop, that will push oil prices upwards, dragging the food and worse, further, the stability problems of the countries. Eventually the tension is such that a new country to fall will not result in a small variation of the situation, but an abrupt, large-scale disruption, a regional war that blocking access to a new product but oil to the West ... any of those things would be a phase change, the move to a different state in which things no longer work as they had become accustomed in recent decades. At the moment it is transferred to that point of no return, things will change in a more sharply than many people realize.


Dimitri Orlov argues that the Hubbert curve, the model used to describe the evolution of oil production, is an idealization that is far from reality, especially in regard to the decline global production. The key is to make the system work as expected each subsystem must operate in an equally reliable, and that means that it continues to look for new wells, building new production facilities, keeping the lines of distribution and refining, etc. However, all facilities which are all depends on the physical world, and apart from those that were damaged by the riots, others will be affected by the volatility of prices listed above and do not invest enough in them, just when most needed. Therefore, the ideal limit of Hubbert will be difficult to accomplish, and most likely we rushed on that side much more quickly than we would like. Because the problem is fed back, and when lower the production cost significantly overcome it. This will lengthen the time that oil will last, but based on creating a greater or earlier shortages.

The final problem of this phenomenon is the predictable tendency of economists to guard explanations focus on the symptoms, without going into the substantive issues, and that leads to an inability inability to understand that the economic crisis / social / humanitarian perceive on the surface is at bottom a crisis resources. And that continually focus on the symptoms and not the illness we will likely lead to ineffective implementation of measures, focusing heavily on the productive side, not understanding that the raw materials now lost and can not recover. As Vesper complaint Nada, unconscious or deliberate misinformation on the structural component of this crisis that never ends inevitably leads to another vicious cycle that will aggravate the problems to reach the phase transition and the collapse of our system.

The fights its kind since the oil shortages of the fate of each country will depend on whether a producer or not, how close it is to the producers and their relationship with them ... Also, if you know how to implement measures decided on savings, contingency against shortages and social protection. That, or wait our particular Tahrir Square. Hopefully for once we are smart.

Salu2,
AMT