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What I can do before the Oil Crash: Prelude

Note: this the first post of a series, "What I can do before the Oil Crash. " Other series in this blog are "no miracles" (denouncing false energy solutions proposed by the media), "Preparing to Transition" (with emphasis on aspects that have to take into account in our declining energy) and "The limits of renewables" (which show what can be done and what can not be done with current technology to capture renewable energy).

Dear readers,

Now that the feeling of an energy crisis is worsening and permeating the society, new readers of this blog (and most likely the former) are repeatedly urged me to give alternative, to propose solutions to propose recipes to prepare against bad times ahead and measures to prevent the disaster that could occur if never give the worst case scenario. These demands are logical and reasonable, and I of course I have to try to make my contribution in that regard, but to move in that direction should be to begin to clarify a number of issues. Now list them by a more or less logical and chronological in the final stage of acceptance of the situation that we have to live. Only, dear reader, when understood, accepted and owned every one of these preliminaries, then and only then can read the final part of this post where measures are proposed. It makes little sense to read these steps if you disagree on the diagnosis of the situation, because that will take you to focus on discussion of some individuals, if they are real or believable, and so on. To make this technical discussion is the rest of the blog , while this part is to try to move in the direction of necessary change.

Here is the list of preliminary questions about the diagnosis of the situation:

1. The situation must be resolved but staked : already discussed here: have to rethink the problem . Because of the over-specialization in Western society, we tend to see every difficulty that arises in day to day as a problem that has to be solved, and this is especially true for people like me who has followed some technical studies. However, few people realize that maybe what is wrong is the approach, which is implicit, which gives both assumed that goes without saying so explicitly. We speak of an energy crisis, we say that there is a shortage of energy, when our per capita energy consumption is hundreds of times we had a couple of centuries only, and we are looking for new sources of energy to keep consuming more and more . But every step of more than go up this ladder puts us ahead of an increasingly difficult challenge to solve, because our economic system requires a continuous and exponential growth (eg, GDP must grow by 2 or 3% per year) . If now we found a wonderful energy source, how long would our growth rate on driving her peak, at peak performance? A few years at most. And the more I go up this ladder, the harder it may be the fall when we can not continue.
2. The crisis is a crisis of model: It is no coincidence that we are living five crises at once: the energy (which deals with this blog ), economic (which distresses us each day), Financial (which prevents us from fabulous fund rescue plans), environmental (that can destroy) and politics (caused by the inability of our representatives to deal effectively with the real issues of citizenship, which they leads to ramble on peripheral issues and its loss of legitimacy before the people). All these crises are interconnected and have numerous branches (military crisis, water, food, population, corruption ,...). They all tell us that our operating model and relationship with the planet and our fellow human beings can not go ahead because we have come up against hard limits, imposed by the finitude of the planet as a last resort. It is a crisis of sustainability .
3. The time to act is now: were warned decades ago that a day like today would come, but all the studies that talked about sustainability population explosion, environmental pollution, the limits of resources, regional imbalances, etc. were neglected in favor of higher interest: economic growth at all costs. Now this haven of well-being were the Western countries is sinking in its contradictions, the disinherited of the world as we fight with our own weapons: the factories relocated sink our local industry, producers of raw materials depleted they cut off the supply, which We buy our debt are increasingly asking us to change ... There is no possible return to "normal", ie the welfare pleasant past decades, now things will be increasingly more difficult, more so if we decide to react. We must also bear in mind that technological countermeasures that are still in the laboratory or, worse, they are nothing more than concepts, will arguably for something for the rapid and acute phase of the transition, since usually require decades to implement something large scale and we have not gone so long. Worse, as the financial situation will not degrade or how to finance, and as the economic crisis deepens we will not have the necessary plants for the supplies required. That is, over time we examine the catabolic collapse.
4. The highest political authorities can not devise a coherent response to the challenge: Not evil, but because of its complexity and the impossible balance of public and corporate interests, even legitimate ones. Within our policy agenda the goal of economic growth is undeniable, and where infrastructure is projected in mind that the activity will grow more and more, not less. A speech is completely voluntary decrease suicidal or simply a modest saving measures English Government have been taken as an insult by most of the English, it is unimaginable to explain to people that never again grow, this economic crisis can never end in the current economic paradigm. Our politicians know too well from years ago that our model is feasible and what is Peak Oil, but not beyond because it is a discussion public but not publicized . When they want to react, and how they want to do (more on this below), disaster may be irreversible.
5. A single person can not stop this: Okay ask me my opinion, like any other disseminator or expert but none can individually find the silver bullet, the magic spell to stop the train. Can not wait on your couch for someone to fix the ballot, it will solve the problem. Every hand counts, and without the help of all will be more difficult to avoid disaster. I always say in the Oil Crash chat that does not help atrincherarte your cottage with your garden and plenty of weapons and ammunition, as you stop ten people hungry, but you can not stop a hundred, or mil. The solution, or is for everyone (read: a large majority) or not. At the end will be right (if only in the slogan) that only those among all fix it ...

Dear reader, if you come here ask yourself whether you agree with the substance of what has been said. If a statement seems wrong or questionable, look in the blog (there's a search bar top right) and discuss and negotiate in the post appropriate. If you really understand and accept what you just read, before continuing stand to make a self-examination. Are you satisfied with the heart ? Do you see the magnitude of the danger in its entirety? Want really do something for you and yours? Do not answer yes mechanically; reflect and internalize their response, anticipating and assessing all the cons and the problems associated with self say that each of these questions. If, after such reflection convinced her adult response remains yes to all three questions, then maybe read what follows my simple suggestions you can provide something.

1. The first step is awareness: is everyone's problem but only a fraction of the public is aware. You have to say having to repeat, we have to insist. Everyone, everyone in our office, we have a responsibility unavoidable to face, because only if approached as a challenge to all of society will have some chance of success, to survive this crisis. Already know: the solution, or is for everyone, or not ... So the rest of the post measures today that are: awareness. Later we will discuss other measures of performance.
2. The Peak Oil and Politics: We are facing a political problem in the sense of the word (because it affects the lives of citizens), but not partisan: there is no other way to left and the right to address the Peak Oil. No looking neither victims nor perpetrators of this situation: we have all benefited in varying degrees and we will all suffer for it, in any case, no time for such discussions. Some leftist politicians start talking about Peak Oil in a low voice (because it is not what stands out in his speech): Gaspar Llamazares with question the Government last June , Joan Herrera in various speeches in Congress, Joan Puigcercós in prime time morning program Catalan television TV3 (see minute 33 in the video here bound, etc.). However, the way you present it and discuss it calls into question whether they really understand the seriousness of the matter, or who know how to address it, given the interlocking interests also transferred to these parties. Anyway, as the energy crisis will become increasingly evident and the speech more audible Peak Oil will be a risk of co-optation (in the English sense of the term ) by a policy option or another. It is important that action is transverse awareness and reach the whole situation, without frontism, since it affects us all and we all want.
3. Mayors: We can not expect anyone to take personal risks for us, we go out and act. We propose to go talk to the mayor (of which we did a test pilot and took some useful lessons ) and explain the problem, since it is easier than you can get effective action from the local levels, especially in villages and small towns. To avoid interference with the political discourse in the case of Spain's best to wait to spend the current municipal elections (in May) so that is not perceived as an element of partisan confrontation at this time of distress. Should, apart from the syllabus , take some official reports as listed in post " Oil Crash: Year 5 " (if you live in Catalonia can be quite effective use this presentation on the review of the current Energy Plan de la Generalitat). What you need to ask the mayor? First, they know the problem: corporations leaving the polls in May will have to deal with the most acute (and unexpected) of this crisis. The second, arising to take measures to encourage sustainability, urban gardens, restoration of jobs to meet basic needs, to raise reasonable urban mobility plans, etc., attempting to engage the unemployed (key to maintaining social peace and the unemployment is high and long-term). Nada Vespera association collects a number of these in your web . On the other hand ask them not to obstruct sensible measures. If they are very receptive to the usefulness of implementing initiatives such as Transition Towns . In this regard, some of the issues discussed in the posts series "Preparing the transition" may be useful.
4. His personal involvement: If you, reader, believe and understand this, should be involved as much as you can and your social circle will allow. It can promote talks on the issue of Peak Oil (the OCO doing outreach in various locations inside and outside Catalonia see right column), try to participate in transition activities, permaculture, etc.. According to and as the situation permits, but always understanding that everyone has a firm commitment to the necessary change.

That's all for starters. In future posts we will discuss other courses of action.
Salu2,
AMT

How To Record On Desmume No Lag

awareness

Source: blog.residesi.com

Dear readers,


I have a couple of technical posts in the pipeline that a couple of weeks I want to write, but the hypnotic current events force me to keep writing about what is happening instead of what will happen and to discuss how we can cope. But it is inevitable: every morning you wake up and look at how is the price of oil, for example in the Oil-page Price.net :







Mixing anxiety and excitement that occurs see the evolution of oil prices these days, with ups and downs of several dollars and lost a little perspective on what is normal and people are still anxiously daily price fluctuations, believing them to interpret the certainty the global supply of oil is falling because of the different food riots in the Arab world, or even that the terminal decline of oil production has already begun. Nothing is further from the truth. You have to remember that OECD countries have a cushion of about 1,600 billion barrels that are stored ( Strategic Reserve) to meet contingencies (typically supply interruptions of up to 90 days), compared to 1.6 million barrels per day (mb / d) represent that Libya was exporting 1,000 days of supply, ie, about three years. It is true that the role of strategic reserves to cushion the prices not only fill gaps, but can be seen that there is a lack of oil given the problem of lack of fungibility oil that OPEC can supply to fill in missing Libyan oil (the surplus of the OPEC oil is of inferior quality, why not produce it regularly, so it has a higher sulfur content and southern Europe's refineries can not refine it as is.) On the other hand, since the average consumption world oil during the second half of last year exceeded 88 mb / d but output was around the 87 mb / d , that million barrels a day has gone missing subtracting strategic reserves. That is, being used as strategic reserves as a price control mechanism, which is dangerous because it undermines their main function, which is to prevent sudden shortages. However, concerns about the economic recovery in the OECD countries has led them to take, discreetly, this measure of left slightly open tap its strategic reserves, making good the Castilian of the bread today, hunger tomorrow .


In Spain it is clear that the excitement has spread in the government. After urgent approved last Friday, this week the newspapers are reeling a new set of measures that seek to minimize energy bills, reduced lighting in cities and highways, parks sharing mobile vehicles of various government ... Are announced reforms to improve the energy efficiency of buildings, and there will be more and more measures. In Europe the debate is only beginning timidly , which suggests that the most delicate situation of the English balance of payments is what has led the English government to rush. Does this mean that the state of the finances of the English State is worse, or more vulnerable-than is recognized? Or that is more aware of Peak Oil and its implications? (Maybe they read my letter , despite signs to the contrary ). In any case, the measures are insufficient and the inability to address the need for a profound change in the production model leads them to fall into the chant of energy efficiency, fallacy of speaking another day. The fact is that the English prime minister, Mr Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero, is touring several Arab Emirates seeking to secure oil supplies in exchange for the massive introduction of capital their sovereign funds in certain assets on which the Government holds the key (such as savings banks more or less supervised by the state after its severe financial problems last year). surely know that 49.5% of oil supply in Spain is in danger ...



And yet, despite the incipient civil war in Libya and possible U.S. military intervention in that country, despite the instability in most Arab countries (and many other countries, with their own food riots but without oil, to which Western public opinion, absorbed in his own anxiety is not pay attention these days ), although Spain - and probably other European countries can not take a price above $ 100 a barrel like the last two months we have ... despite all this, do not know if we are already entering the next phase of our energy descent or all of this is just a feint of heart. The Northern Hemisphere cold season is ending, and with it demand for oil will fall over the coming weeks, which should significantly reduce prices in a market as stressed as the present. After the revolutionary collapse of Tunisia, Egypt and Libya, the other oil exporters have learned their lesson and are anticipating the event, giving new subsidies to their people and at the same time strengthening its selective repression, and in many cases, with the help and advice from the Western powers, who refuse to be dragged into a new wave of global economic recession ... These factors tend to wet the wick of the bomb that we have all been composed, and there might not be to postpone the next peak in prices, the next crisis for a while. I personally think it's difficult to avoid the next price spike and the ensuing wave of economic destruction takes place this year, probably around the summer, but there are many uncontrollable factors that are beyond the navel-gazing Western vision, such as how development will China, which consumes and 9 mb / d of oil but accumulates many internal imbalances, with rising inflation, social tensions suppressed with an iron fist and a foreign market us in a position of contraction.


We are climbing the next hill of a roller coaster, and do not know if after the summit is a short fall and bearable or longer and more destructive. What we do know is that the longer we play this game, which more than mountain seems roulette without making structural changes are needed beyond the tecnooptimismo irresponsible magic and the accumulated tensions in an increasingly weaker bring us closer to that peak after which the fall will be terrible.


Dear readers, we need your help to make possible the change we need. Stay tuned.


Salu2,
AMT