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Dear readers,
As a child, somewhere, ahem, rarely occasion I had a major blunder during an examination. Maybe it was a review of History, or Mathematics, the fact is that just asked me about topics that had no well-learned, or had some doubts and gaps and did not quite find the right way to develop the theme. Over time, you learn to focus on those aspects that one knows or suspects that will be able to defend, accepting that the review will not be perfect, there will be parts that will be abandoned to their fate and be rated at zero, but at final assembly can pass the bar for approval. But, of course, to learn the optimal strategy with which to manage the scarce resource that is being self-knowledge one must first fail a couple (or more) times. Who has not passed it, needing to concentrate on an exam, just try to draw from the depths of the conscious and subconscious happy date of the battle of Las Navas de Tolosa or the coronation of Charlemagne, or how did permutations with repetitions, leaving just his imagination unfettered by the hills of Ubeda? And the worst of these recreational trips is that, suddenly, you realize that there are five or ten minutes for the review were to end, not because a spontaneous return of those green pastures, no, but because he said aloud the teacher. I stormed at the time a cold sweat and oppression in the stomach of a intensity difficult to describe. And then you could accelerate as much as the activity of neurons, but only a glance you could not stop looking at the clock class, which was relentless fall minute by minute. "Id delivering and examinations, please," you sweat trickling down his temples. The comrades had given their mostly written test, and there you were with two or three behind forever. If the teacher was lenient let you keep writing until the moment last, which was when the bell rang marking the end of the class. Then, slowly, passing through the desks behind and snatched them without violence but merciless examination. And then came up your desk ...
it comes to the case of financial assistance and inevitable that the final will be on economic reality, of Portugal. With him are now three euro zone countries that have undergone surgery (sorry, that have benefited from the bailout fund), after Greece and Ireland. Among the three would have needed about 300,000 billion bailout fund, which in its constitution had 500,000 million euros (constants and "in kind") provided by the European Union countries and another 250,000 million from the IMF , in total, 750,000 million, but lately there is talk of extending this fund. The latter is natural, due to their own internal imbalances and English positions in Portugal, it is quite likely that Spain will have to end up benefiting from the bailout fund itself within months, with the aggravating circumstance that the English economy (counted as GDP) is more than twice the Greek, Irish and Portuguese together and therefore is easy to believe that Spain's financial needs will exceed half a billion euros (officially Spain's total debt is 250% of its GDP, which is approximately one billion euros, though many analysts to rise to 350% and more).
should be very visible that the IMF is putting a substantial amount in the fund's rescue. The International Monetary Fund , or IMF, is not exactly an intergovernmental organization to use. Although formally a UN specialized agency, administrative structure, financial and, above all, governance is determined by the economic weight of each country. In practice, representatives of big firms in the world have de facto control of the institution, and thereby gain political visibility that allows them to implement their agenda. These policies IMF always pursue one goal: that big borrowers do not lose money. Therefore, when a country needs to go to the direct or indirect supervision of the IMF, its "recipes" shock not seek the country's economic growth but to ensure by whatever means its solvency, although this is achieved by destroying the heritage compromising its current and future economic growth. Governments bow to the strict conditions imposed by the IMF and that if financial markets would be closed to them and could not finance its public budget (nowadays most Western governments operate on the basis of continued funding of current expenditure and investments). Such simple words, the IMF is the fraction collector, and you go to pay your debts, with interest to their customers if needed will force you to sell the jewels and your grandmother's grocery store at which you earn bread, and if you do not agree to it suddenly close the tap and you can not pay your suppliers, so also you would go to ruin. It is a grotesque simplification, but it captures the basic idea (at least I did not say that a thug breaks your legs, that is, an army comes over to stay with your resources, but that is another story ...) . Some of my overseas readers may verify your personal experience what it is and how it works the IMF.
With the arrival of the rescue fund, Portugal ran out of time to speculate: the teacher has collected and consideration. It has not made the necessary infrastructure to reduce its dependence on oil and will no longer how to finance them. Nor can fund more research into biofuels or nuclear fusion will be lucky if he can keep having. You have not strengthened their local networks and has driven energy descent plan, and now will be much more difficult to do, while oil and external financing are becoming more expensive. Portugal simply running out of phase 1 of the collapse (as discussed in the corresponding post what are the stages of collapse ) and falls into a hole that, given the historical context of declining energy availability, costs out. In the process now starts in the neighboring country of the writer, the economy will shrink and its energy consumption will decline, which will be good for everyone else that may feed spoils. Clear that Portugal is small and hardly notice the effect of the resources, so do not expect a big drop in oil prices over the months and years will this induced energy and economic decline of Portugal. Of course, to Portugal this move will be a blow, for all practical purposes to Portugal the decline post-Peak Oil will be accelerated. And, already discussed, each country will experience an epic particular, its own version of Peak Oil understood as its own decline in oil consumption, and hence energy.
As I repeated many times, the energy crisis will go for neighborhoods, so different in each place, so that although there are common features each region will experience a different start of the energy shortage. Moreover, the fact that they occur phase transitions characteristic of the right side of the Hubbert curve makes the economic downturn, with the subsequent drop in energy consumption, is perceived as the immediate cause of energy descent, and not vice versa, that is leading to talk of "Peak demand" as opposed to "peak production" or Peak Oil. Actually remove the myth of peak demand is fairly simple: if the problem is the height of demand, economic growth will end with strength, finish this cycle. If the problem is production, then this crisis never end in our current economic paradigm. However, it is expected for decades and decades that even countries that have fallen into this black hole in this catabolic collapse, affirm that the recovery is about to begin and that the energy descent is peak demand for multiple causes, so great is our blindness and strong faith in economic growth make us unable to recognize the Oil Crash even though they live it. This process will actually be involuntary catabolic collapse, with deliberate or accidental destruction of those structures that we can no longer maintain. Worse still, destroy those facilities or investments needed to alleviate the energy shortage: the paralyze the exploration and development of new wells in the affected countries or companies are operated collapsing native country, are left to build power plants, wind farms, etc. In the medium term the situation will degenerate into chaos, to the aggravation of collapse following the different phases. The fact that for the rest of the participants in this game, countries that have not yet collapsed, the situation is more or less normal, with an efficient distribution of oil and energy in general, would not even in the country collapsing is to be aware that we are experiencing an energy crisis; Moreover, when attempting to address the issue will not touch it, because more urgent matters - the economic and financial crisis, demand our attention. Who wants to invest in a new rail line if it can not fund it? Who will consider establishing an emergency plan for energy savings when the priority is to reduce the rampant unemployment? Who will invest in research if not already used to pay the bills? Not perceive a problem with the power until prices stay high permanently, and then, when the volatile phase price finished, it will be because the sharp decline of production will have begun, and at that time will be too late to do anything. That is, when we know that we have an energy crisis because it is fully evident by then it will be terminal.
economic intervention (sorry, rescue) means an irreversible deepening of this complex process and will not be recognized for what it is: a systemic crisis associated with a natural resource crisis. In Portugal we have collected the test and the teacher has already stopped at our desk. It is a meager consolation stupid while those countries looking at us over his shoulder, calling us to face PIGS (acronym in English disgraced countries) have not yet realized that after collecting our discussion the teacher will be at their desks too. It turns out that none of us, from Greece to the U.S., has launched reforms that were needed at all levels, energy, economic and financial (not to mention the environment), we all have gaping thinking fantasies Network smart power, millions of electric cars , hydrogen fuel cells algae biofuel, nuclear reactors and rapid regenerative melting and so forth ... we let fly our imagination, instead of answering the test. It is too late for regrets.
I do not know for whom the bell tolls, it tolls for thee.
Salu2,
AMT
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