Note: this the first post of a series, "What I can do before the Oil Crash. " Other series in this blog are "no miracles" (denouncing false energy solutions proposed by the media), "Preparing to Transition" (with emphasis on aspects that have to take into account in our declining energy) and "The limits of renewables" (which show what can be done and what can not be done with current technology to capture renewable energy).
Dear readers,
Now that the feeling of an energy crisis is worsening and permeating the society, new readers of this blog (and most likely the former) are repeatedly urged me to give alternative, to propose solutions to propose recipes to prepare against bad times ahead and measures to prevent the disaster that could occur if never give the worst case scenario. These demands are logical and reasonable, and I of course I have to try to make my contribution in that regard, but to move in that direction should be to begin to clarify a number of issues. Now list them by a more or less logical and chronological in the final stage of acceptance of the situation that we have to live. Only, dear reader, when understood, accepted and owned every one of these preliminaries, then and only then can read the final part of this post where measures are proposed. It makes little sense to read these steps if you disagree on the diagnosis of the situation, because that will take you to focus on discussion of some individuals, if they are real or believable, and so on. To make this technical discussion is the rest of the blog , while this part is to try to move in the direction of necessary change.
Here is the list of preliminary questions about the diagnosis of the situation:
- The situation must be resolved but staked : already discussed here: have to rethink the problem . Because of the over-specialization in Western society, we tend to see every difficulty that arises in day to day as a problem that has to be solved, and this is especially true for people like me who has followed some technical studies. However, few people realize that maybe what is wrong is the approach, which is implicit, which gives both assumed that goes without saying so explicitly. We speak of an energy crisis, we say that there is a shortage of energy, when our per capita energy consumption is hundreds of times we had a couple of centuries only, and we are looking for new sources of energy to keep consuming more and more . But every step of more than go up this ladder puts us ahead of an increasingly difficult challenge to solve, because our economic system requires a continuous and exponential growth (eg, GDP must grow by 2 or 3% per year) . If now we found a wonderful energy source, how long would our growth rate on driving her peak, at peak performance? A few years at most. And the more I go up this ladder, the harder it may be the fall when we can not continue.
- The crisis is a crisis of model: It is no coincidence that we are living five crises at once: the energy (which deals with this blog ), economic (which distresses us each day), Financial (which prevents us from fabulous fund rescue plans), environmental (that can destroy) and politics (caused by the inability of our representatives to deal effectively with the real issues of citizenship, which they leads to ramble on peripheral issues and its loss of legitimacy before the people). All these crises are interconnected and have numerous branches (military crisis, water, food, population, corruption ,...). They all tell us that our operating model and relationship with the planet and our fellow human beings can not go ahead because we have come up against hard limits, imposed by the finitude of the planet as a last resort. It is a crisis of sustainability .
- The time to act is now: were warned decades ago that a day like today would come, but all the studies that talked about sustainability population explosion, environmental pollution, the limits of resources, regional imbalances, etc. were neglected in favor of higher interest: economic growth at all costs. Now this haven of well-being were the Western countries is sinking in its contradictions, the disinherited of the world as we fight with our own weapons: the factories relocated sink our local industry, producers of raw materials depleted they cut off the supply, which We buy our debt are increasingly asking us to change ... There is no possible return to "normal", ie the welfare pleasant past decades, now things will be increasingly more difficult, more so if we decide to react. We must also bear in mind that technological countermeasures that are still in the laboratory or, worse, they are nothing more than concepts, will arguably for something for the rapid and acute phase of the transition, since usually require decades to implement something large scale and we have not gone so long. Worse, as the financial situation will not degrade or how to finance, and as the economic crisis deepens we will not have the necessary plants for the supplies required. That is, over time we examine the catabolic collapse.
- The highest political authorities can not devise a coherent response to the challenge: Not evil, but because of its complexity and the impossible balance of public and corporate interests, even legitimate ones. Within our policy agenda the goal of economic growth is undeniable, and where infrastructure is projected in mind that the activity will grow more and more, not less. A speech is completely voluntary decrease suicidal or simply a modest saving measures English Government have been taken as an insult by most of the English, it is unimaginable to explain to people that never again grow, this economic crisis can never end in the current economic paradigm. Our politicians know too well from years ago that our model is feasible and what is Peak Oil, but not beyond because it is a discussion public but not publicized . When they want to react, and how they want to do (more on this below), disaster may be irreversible.
- A single person can not stop this: Okay ask me my opinion, like any other disseminator or expert but none can individually find the silver bullet, the magic spell to stop the train. Can not wait on your couch for someone to fix the ballot, it will solve the problem. Every hand counts, and without the help of all will be more difficult to avoid disaster. I always say in the Oil Crash chat that does not help atrincherarte your cottage with your garden and plenty of weapons and ammunition, as you stop ten people hungry, but you can not stop a hundred, or mil. The solution, or is for everyone (read: a large majority) or not. At the end will be right (if only in the slogan) that only those among all fix it ...
Dear reader, if you come here ask yourself whether you agree with the substance of what has been said. If a statement seems wrong or questionable, look in the blog (there's a search bar top right) and discuss and negotiate in the post appropriate. If you really understand and accept what you just read, before continuing stand to make a self-examination. Are you satisfied with the heart ? Do you see the magnitude of the danger in its entirety? Want really do something for you and yours? Do not answer yes mechanically; reflect and internalize their response, anticipating and assessing all the cons and the problems associated with self say that each of these questions. If, after such reflection convinced her adult response remains yes to all three questions, then maybe read what follows my simple suggestions you can provide something.
- The first step is awareness: is everyone's problem but only a fraction of the public is aware. You have to say having to repeat, we have to insist. Everyone, everyone in our office, we have a responsibility unavoidable to face, because only if approached as a challenge to all of society will have some chance of success, to survive this crisis. Already know: the solution, or is for everyone, or not ... So the rest of the post measures today that are: awareness. Later we will discuss other measures of performance.
- The Peak Oil and Politics: We are facing a political problem in the sense of the word (because it affects the lives of citizens), but not partisan: there is no other way to left and the right to address the Peak Oil. No looking neither victims nor perpetrators of this situation: we have all benefited in varying degrees and we will all suffer for it, in any case, no time for such discussions. Some leftist politicians start talking about Peak Oil in a low voice (because it is not what stands out in his speech): Gaspar Llamazares with question the Government last June , Joan Herrera in various speeches in Congress, Joan Puigcercós in prime time morning program Catalan television TV3 (see minute 33 in the video here bound, etc.). However, the way you present it and discuss it calls into question whether they really understand the seriousness of the matter, or who know how to address it, given the interlocking interests also transferred to these parties. Anyway, as the energy crisis will become increasingly evident and the speech more audible Peak Oil will be a risk of co-optation (in the English sense of the term ) by a policy option or another. It is important that action is transverse awareness and reach the whole situation, without frontism, since it affects us all and we all want.
- Mayors: We can not expect anyone to take personal risks for us, we go out and act. We propose to go talk to the mayor (of which we did a test pilot and took some useful lessons ) and explain the problem, since it is easier than you can get effective action from the local levels, especially in villages and small towns. To avoid interference with the political discourse in the case of Spain's best to wait to spend the current municipal elections (in May) so that is not perceived as an element of partisan confrontation at this time of distress. Should, apart from the syllabus , take some official reports as listed in post " Oil Crash: Year 5 " (if you live in Catalonia can be quite effective use this presentation on the review of the current Energy Plan de la Generalitat). What you need to ask the mayor? First, they know the problem: corporations leaving the polls in May will have to deal with the most acute (and unexpected) of this crisis. The second, arising to take measures to encourage sustainability, urban gardens, restoration of jobs to meet basic needs, to raise reasonable urban mobility plans, etc., attempting to engage the unemployed (key to maintaining social peace and the unemployment is high and long-term). Nada Vespera association collects a number of these in your web . On the other hand ask them not to obstruct sensible measures. If they are very receptive to the usefulness of implementing initiatives such as Transition Towns . In this regard, some of the issues discussed in the posts series "Preparing the transition" may be useful.
- His personal involvement: If you, reader, believe and understand this, should be involved as much as you can and your social circle will allow. It can promote talks on the issue of Peak Oil (the OCO doing outreach in various locations inside and outside Catalonia see right column), try to participate in transition activities, permaculture, etc.. According to and as the situation permits, but always understanding that everyone has a firm commitment to the necessary change.
That's all for starters. In future posts we will discuss other courses of action.
Salu2,
AMT
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