Ven.
Thursday, April 28, 2011
Bulk Order Chicken Wings
Pending on the beach
If the wait is long, please resign. I can not return to the beach with you. I know that run after strangers in the hope of meeting again. This morning you made a hole in the sand, hid some of your sadness there and barking sea to find the answer. If you're waiting for me on the beach, I'll wait here. When we meet again, happy to be running to infinity. You'll be a happy puppy again and I will be a child who will be behind you.
Ven.
Ven.
Tuesday, April 26, 2011
Writing.com Breast Expansion Emily
The Saudi threat
Dear readers,
Although I do not like posts overly focused on current issues Over the last two weeks there have been two disturbing news in Saudi Arabia I think is worth discussing from a broader perspective. The main source of what we discuss is also available on this the blog post Oilman.
The first of these updates is that, despite the decline of oil production in Libya more than 1.2 million barrels per day (Mb / d) because of the war that plagues that country, Saudi Arabia has experienced a decline in its oil production of 800,000 barrels per day only one month, going from 9.11 Mb / d in February to 8.29 Mb / d in March, as announced by Saudi oil minister, Mr. Ali Al-Naimi. This has caused outrage in many American media, as Wall Street and Financial Times, who complain about the unreliability of the Saudi partner, either of their numbers or their capacity to produce oil.
The second story is about a shift in policy survey of Saudi Arabia. According to Reuters reports , Simmons & Co, the bank founded by the late Matt Simmons, has issued an agreement between the Saudi kingdom and several large utilities such as the notorious Halliburton to increase the number of boreholes in 30 %. Although in principle the news would be positive (and a turnaround compared to announcement last year did King Abdullah that would leave the remaining oil for future generations), two company representatives Saudi national oil, Aramco, confirmed to Reuters that the purpose of these additional wells is only to maintain current production levels , not increase it.
Both news has triggered a barrage of questions about the actual ability and willingness of Saudi Arabia to the oil supplier of last resort in the world. With a nominal idle capacity of about 3 Mb / d, Saudi Arabia may be able to produce more than 12 Mb / d, a figure that the International Energy Agency (IEA) gives the expected production of this country for 2015 and with the view that increase up to 14 Mb / d in 2020. However, something is preventing Saudi Arabia to increase production significantly above about 9 Mb / d to produce today, what he has done that has ceased to be the world's largest producer of oil, ceding the square to Russia more than 10 Mb / d.
There are various hypotheses about what is happening in Saudi Arabia, which pass through an interpretation of the words of Mr. Al-Naimi said when asked about the reason for this decrease in production oil so badly in a situation of high prices. According with the Minister, Saudi Arabia is the oil market well supplied, "flooded" even in his own words, and if the price rises is due to speculators.
Some analysts believe might be right, since the disaster of Japan (earthquake and subsequent tsunami) the country Japan has lost much refining capacity and demand has fallen dramatically. However, global demand continues to grow strongly, thanks mainly to China and India, and to a lesser extent by the economic recovery of Western countries and Japan certainly require additional quantities of oil soon to compensate for lost power generation capacity (about 25%, which is huge). Either way, the president of the United States, Barack Obama, has been paid to this thesis and announced a war (read legal prosecution) against oil speculators . Which is no less surprising in a country that has been built on faith in free markets. I, who am by nature suspicious, rather than believe Mr. Obama is putting the band before the injury and is looking for scapegoats and the expected oil price spike this summer. Time will tell.
Other analysts believe that Saudi Arabia movements respond to a desire to settle accounts with the West, and particularly to the U.S. for its failure to support friendly regimes in the Saudi kingdom have fallen dominoes in recent months. Fearing for their own stability, Saudi leaders have decided to turn down a peg to the West on the basis of closing the tap a little oil, allowing prices to rise, and profits while achieving rapid and low cost and then hand out some crumbs from their own people and stop the unrest.
Finally, some analysts bet that what is happening is that in a practical way Saudi Arabia can increase its production, ie, Saudi Arabia would be drawing to a peak oil. That is critical, since the beginning of the decline of the Saudi oil production means the beginning of the decline of world oil production. There is some evidence to suggest that this may indeed be the case. We have already mentioned here that the Saudi spare capacity is about 1 Mb / d which is more nominal than real Manifa field produces oil so contaminated with vanadium that can be refined in any refinery in the world. Add to why a large part of the rest of the oil spare capacity is high in sulfur, which is not suitable for more than a few refineries in the world, and in particular can not be processed at the refineries that feed crude Libyan. The Saudi idea of \u200b\u200bdoing a special blend of crude oil bad and good to the point of tolerance and refineries and Libyan supply deficit was not well received, as discussed in the Financial Times Javier Blas the mixture did not reach the minimum standard required quality and had no place in the market. On the other hand, Saudi Arabia is a country subjected to water stress very important, with a clear exploitation its aquifer, which could dry up in this decade. That the aquifer is for two main uses: agriculture and for water vapor injection in oil wells to increase production. If the aquifer is about to run this can lead to a drastic drop in oil production of Saudi Arabia, faster than predicted by the Hubbert curve in a new manifestation of the nonlinearity phase transition .
Last November the IEA admitted for the first time the world would Peak Oil exceeded its crude oil, although ontological optimism assumed that its production would remain stable over the next 25 years, and adding to that the supply of natural gas liquids and unconventional oil production could total even increase. But in the IEA estimate for granted that the production of Saudi Arabia would come to 14.6 Mb / d in 2025, even assuming that Saudi Arabia could maintain current production rates from 5.4 Mb / d which would lack virtually eliminated all the planned price increase, any new diversion of forecasts and the world will have already entered the phase of decline production of all petroleum liquids, and not just crude oil. In short, reports last year that we warn of the impending arrival of the decline and supply problems are certainly successful. Would not also optimistic.
Salu2,
AMT
Addendum (April 28, 2011): The commenter JotaEle sends me these reflections, together with some charts that I think worth sharing:
Addendum 2: The plot thickens by the minute. Majed Al Moneef, Saudi Arabia's OPEC governor, has announced two important facts. One, that the production of oil from Saudi Arabia will remain stuck at 8.2 Mb / d today to 2016, and will not reach the 10.8 Mb / d until 2030, very far, therefore, brand of 14.6 Mb / d which assigns IEA the kingdom for the year 2035. Worse, in a practical recognition of the effect Export Land Model (which we discussed here ) predicts that domestic consumption growth in that country will necessarily lead to a reduction in the volume of oil available for export . Those who know French can see complete coverage of this information in the blog oilman of Le Monde.
And if you think that things can not get worse, know who Sergei Koudriachov, energy minister Russian, has just announced that Russian oil companies suspend their oil exports from the month of May . We're talking about a ban on exports of petrol, diesel and other fuels which Gazprom and Rosneft reportedly being diverted to the international market, which pays better than domestic. This has caused a shortage alarming these products in Russia, which has forced the government of that country to take action on the matter.
The consequences of both news it is difficult that they do take note: expected rise in oil prices right at the beginning of a year of more demand and increasing even more gasoline and diesel. It is also another example of the growing global market inefficiencies oil, which is increasingly less responsive to free market paradigm. The effects of fuel shortages in importing countries is unpredictable, especially in Iran, the third largest producer of oil but gasoline importer. More non-linear effects that can make the steep descent down the right side of the Hubbert curve. Troubled times ... 
 |
| Source: news.antiwar.com |
Dear readers,
Although I do not like posts overly focused on current issues Over the last two weeks there have been two disturbing news in Saudi Arabia I think is worth discussing from a broader perspective. The main source of what we discuss is also available on this the blog post Oilman.
The first of these updates is that, despite the decline of oil production in Libya more than 1.2 million barrels per day (Mb / d) because of the war that plagues that country, Saudi Arabia has experienced a decline in its oil production of 800,000 barrels per day only one month, going from 9.11 Mb / d in February to 8.29 Mb / d in March, as announced by Saudi oil minister, Mr. Ali Al-Naimi. This has caused outrage in many American media, as Wall Street and Financial Times, who complain about the unreliability of the Saudi partner, either of their numbers or their capacity to produce oil.
The second story is about a shift in policy survey of Saudi Arabia. According to Reuters reports , Simmons & Co, the bank founded by the late Matt Simmons, has issued an agreement between the Saudi kingdom and several large utilities such as the notorious Halliburton to increase the number of boreholes in 30 %. Although in principle the news would be positive (and a turnaround compared to announcement last year did King Abdullah that would leave the remaining oil for future generations), two company representatives Saudi national oil, Aramco, confirmed to Reuters that the purpose of these additional wells is only to maintain current production levels , not increase it.
Both news has triggered a barrage of questions about the actual ability and willingness of Saudi Arabia to the oil supplier of last resort in the world. With a nominal idle capacity of about 3 Mb / d, Saudi Arabia may be able to produce more than 12 Mb / d, a figure that the International Energy Agency (IEA) gives the expected production of this country for 2015 and with the view that increase up to 14 Mb / d in 2020. However, something is preventing Saudi Arabia to increase production significantly above about 9 Mb / d to produce today, what he has done that has ceased to be the world's largest producer of oil, ceding the square to Russia more than 10 Mb / d.
There are various hypotheses about what is happening in Saudi Arabia, which pass through an interpretation of the words of Mr. Al-Naimi said when asked about the reason for this decrease in production oil so badly in a situation of high prices. According with the Minister, Saudi Arabia is the oil market well supplied, "flooded" even in his own words, and if the price rises is due to speculators.
Some analysts believe might be right, since the disaster of Japan (earthquake and subsequent tsunami) the country Japan has lost much refining capacity and demand has fallen dramatically. However, global demand continues to grow strongly, thanks mainly to China and India, and to a lesser extent by the economic recovery of Western countries and Japan certainly require additional quantities of oil soon to compensate for lost power generation capacity (about 25%, which is huge). Either way, the president of the United States, Barack Obama, has been paid to this thesis and announced a war (read legal prosecution) against oil speculators . Which is no less surprising in a country that has been built on faith in free markets. I, who am by nature suspicious, rather than believe Mr. Obama is putting the band before the injury and is looking for scapegoats and the expected oil price spike this summer. Time will tell.
Other analysts believe that Saudi Arabia movements respond to a desire to settle accounts with the West, and particularly to the U.S. for its failure to support friendly regimes in the Saudi kingdom have fallen dominoes in recent months. Fearing for their own stability, Saudi leaders have decided to turn down a peg to the West on the basis of closing the tap a little oil, allowing prices to rise, and profits while achieving rapid and low cost and then hand out some crumbs from their own people and stop the unrest.
Finally, some analysts bet that what is happening is that in a practical way Saudi Arabia can increase its production, ie, Saudi Arabia would be drawing to a peak oil. That is critical, since the beginning of the decline of the Saudi oil production means the beginning of the decline of world oil production. There is some evidence to suggest that this may indeed be the case. We have already mentioned here that the Saudi spare capacity is about 1 Mb / d which is more nominal than real Manifa field produces oil so contaminated with vanadium that can be refined in any refinery in the world. Add to why a large part of the rest of the oil spare capacity is high in sulfur, which is not suitable for more than a few refineries in the world, and in particular can not be processed at the refineries that feed crude Libyan. The Saudi idea of \u200b\u200bdoing a special blend of crude oil bad and good to the point of tolerance and refineries and Libyan supply deficit was not well received, as discussed in the Financial Times Javier Blas the mixture did not reach the minimum standard required quality and had no place in the market. On the other hand, Saudi Arabia is a country subjected to water stress very important, with a clear exploitation its aquifer, which could dry up in this decade. That the aquifer is for two main uses: agriculture and for water vapor injection in oil wells to increase production. If the aquifer is about to run this can lead to a drastic drop in oil production of Saudi Arabia, faster than predicted by the Hubbert curve in a new manifestation of the nonlinearity phase transition .
Last November the IEA admitted for the first time the world would Peak Oil exceeded its crude oil, although ontological optimism assumed that its production would remain stable over the next 25 years, and adding to that the supply of natural gas liquids and unconventional oil production could total even increase. But in the IEA estimate for granted that the production of Saudi Arabia would come to 14.6 Mb / d in 2025, even assuming that Saudi Arabia could maintain current production rates from 5.4 Mb / d which would lack virtually eliminated all the planned price increase, any new diversion of forecasts and the world will have already entered the phase of decline production of all petroleum liquids, and not just crude oil. In short, reports last year that we warn of the impending arrival of the decline and supply problems are certainly successful. Would not also optimistic.
Salu2,
AMT
Addendum (April 28, 2011): The commenter JotaEle sends me these reflections, together with some charts that I think worth sharing:
Indeed it is very difficult to know what happens in Saudi Arabia, data and news go in both directions. I personally think they have spare capacity, especially if you keep doing what they ultimately do, cut and maintain. I think there must be some truth in it to "save oil for future generations, ultimately know that their oil is not eternal, there is an Arab saying about oil that says" My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son piloting a plane. My grandson will mount a camel. "
In 2009, the former production engineer Sadad al Husseini said that Saudi Arabia had no problems of extraction and that their technology permitted. On the other hand had doubts about the increasing output in Iran and Iraq, precisely because of lack of water in Iraq and lack of gas in Iran. However, other sources have been saying for some time that Ghawar, the largest oilfield in the world by far, is taking more water than oil.
If we see the curves of output from Saudi Arabia, do not follow a curve, is full of serrated teeth, almost all are due to political decisions, so it is impossible to know if they are growing or plateau. Almost all OPEC countries have serrated graphics. I have some graphs taken from the BP database comparing the production of some of the biggest producers in the world. They see the Russian curve bell-shaped. Also sees the Russian production decline coincided with the rise in output from Saudi Arabia (Domeneck is right, the final nail the USSR was the increased production from Saudi Arabia, plotted alongside the U.S.). Also seen in the graphs of Saudi Arabia, Iran and Iraq, the date of the oil crises of 1973 (Yom Kippur War), 1979 (Iranian revolution and the Iran-Iraq), 1991 (Operation Desert Storm), 2003 ( Invasion of Iraq).
 |
| Figure 1: Major global oil producers |
I have another graph that compares the Total oil production with OPEC production and the production of world (non-OPEC). It is seen that non-OPEC production nearly went into plateau in 2004. I think when Non-OPEC production from declining global production will decline also. You can not count on OPEC production, since their decisions are influenced by politics. In addition, once the world into decline, OPEC may mark the price he wants, which is somewhat logical that Saudi Arabia is reserving its oil production.
 |
| Chart 2: World production, OPEC and non-OPEC production, Russian production and production of Saudi Arabia. |
addition to these graphs I have made the graphics output from Saudi Arabia and Russia. Note that the graph of Saudi production is very similar to that of OPEC and the global production, this seems to indicate how much oil Saudi influence in the world. Also note what looks like the graph of the Russian Federation to the graph of non-OPEC oil. I also believe that when Russia enters into decline, oil will decline from the rest of world (non-OPEC).
PD. The graph of Russia begins in 1985, until then the Russian oil was included in the USSR. Greetings
Addendum 2: The plot thickens by the minute. Majed Al Moneef, Saudi Arabia's OPEC governor, has announced two important facts. One, that the production of oil from Saudi Arabia will remain stuck at 8.2 Mb / d today to 2016, and will not reach the 10.8 Mb / d until 2030, very far, therefore, brand of 14.6 Mb / d which assigns IEA the kingdom for the year 2035. Worse, in a practical recognition of the effect Export Land Model (which we discussed here ) predicts that domestic consumption growth in that country will necessarily lead to a reduction in the volume of oil available for export . Those who know French can see complete coverage of this information in the blog oilman of Le Monde.
And if you think that things can not get worse, know who Sergei Koudriachov, energy minister Russian, has just announced that Russian oil companies suspend their oil exports from the month of May . We're talking about a ban on exports of petrol, diesel and other fuels which Gazprom and Rosneft reportedly being diverted to the international market, which pays better than domestic. This has caused a shortage alarming these products in Russia, which has forced the government of that country to take action on the matter.
The consequences of both news it is difficult that they do take note: expected rise in oil prices right at the beginning of a year of more demand and increasing even more gasoline and diesel. It is also another example of the growing global market inefficiencies oil, which is increasingly less responsive to free market paradigm. The effects of fuel shortages in importing countries is unpredictable, especially in Iran, the third largest producer of oil but gasoline importer. More non-linear effects that can make the steep descent down the right side of the Hubbert curve. Troubled times ...
Thursday, April 21, 2011
Lice Shampoo Pregnant Women
Preparing the transition: how to harness renewable energy renewable
Dear readers,
In the previous post we analyzed why renewable energy is the lifeline that is constantly telling us from the media and by companies and parties. As we saw, a major difficulty and was difficult to ignore is that, apart from biofuels (whose limitations have already discussed here ) our renewable energy sources provide us with electricity, which is not what we need most, and that saturation of the market for excess power generation, coinciding with the current economic and financial problems and progress can ever get to deploy. Does that mean that in our future energy descent can not count even with renewable energy? Not at all, but what is requier and is doing, in this as in so many other things, a transition and change our way of thinking. So far our aim has been to maintain an industrial society with specifications similar to the present, and while try to make a transition from current fossil to the post-fossil as will necessarily be a future, we realize that the technical and financial difficulties our company will fail. But is not this, again, a case that what is needed is restate the problem?
Consider for a moment: What do we want renewable energy? Why electricity? Actually, no, electricity is a means to an end. So what we want? Fundamentally, to improve our living conditions, especially in our homes, and more light physical labor. Both of which renewable energy can we seek, and with relative ease, since they overcome the obstinacy of model based on electricity alone.
produce electricity makes sense if you want to transport energy over long distances and then effectively convert this electrical energy into mechanical energy or other (magnetic, radiation, ...) at the site where it is consumed and above managing demand as does our electricity grid (in short, adapting to our whims, to the sum of the vagaries of users of the grid). But Despite the recent conversion efficiency of electricity-in the case of electric motors is used for 85% of the power to make it mechanically there is a 20% loss in the network caused by thermal dissipation and the voltage transformation losses. And this must be added the initial losses in the conversion of sunlight or wind power into electricity. Naturally, many more steps of transformation taking place more energy is dissipated along the way and less effective a process. But we need to move from the mains so much energy? Can not we capture and consume energy locally renewable? Our ancestors did, and our current knowledge we should be able to improve it. Here is a non-exhaustive list of various methods to make more efficient use of renewable energy sources, all share a distinctive feature: the use of energy is distributed, local-global non-centralized.
Why this insistence, then, the use of renewable energy for electricity production? Because this pattern of exploitation of renewable energies is a model of large-scale network and supports not only Taylorization work, but also the concentration of capital in equipment and improvement of economic returns. In addition, large network models, with its large facilities, provide great returns to investors. But if the goal is not unbridled economic growth, but have a society in balance, in full, sustainable, growing only in human progress and knowledge, the major networks, as we have discussed today, are first a hindrance than a desirable goal . We are so used to this big network model do not question it, to the point that is all that is discussed in the media that we do not realize that this obsession with a certain type of exploitation is exactly what you can do viable society.
If this post is part of the series "Preparing for the transition" is because in order to harness these energies with great performance and a sustainable and maintainable in a shortage of energy has to begin now to think of something that goes beyond the paradigm of grid-scale distribution and start devise local systems to better use.
renewable energy use, and do it wisely, so distributed and adapted to each application.
Salu2,
AMT
P. Data: During the next two weeks may be less connected than usual. I hope to resume normal activity on May 10. 
 |
| Image Sieiro Ni ... |
In the previous post we analyzed why renewable energy is the lifeline that is constantly telling us from the media and by companies and parties. As we saw, a major difficulty and was difficult to ignore is that, apart from biofuels (whose limitations have already discussed here ) our renewable energy sources provide us with electricity, which is not what we need most, and that saturation of the market for excess power generation, coinciding with the current economic and financial problems and progress can ever get to deploy. Does that mean that in our future energy descent can not count even with renewable energy? Not at all, but what is requier and is doing, in this as in so many other things, a transition and change our way of thinking. So far our aim has been to maintain an industrial society with specifications similar to the present, and while try to make a transition from current fossil to the post-fossil as will necessarily be a future, we realize that the technical and financial difficulties our company will fail. But is not this, again, a case that what is needed is restate the problem?
Consider for a moment: What do we want renewable energy? Why electricity? Actually, no, electricity is a means to an end. So what we want? Fundamentally, to improve our living conditions, especially in our homes, and more light physical labor. Both of which renewable energy can we seek, and with relative ease, since they overcome the obstinacy of model based on electricity alone.
produce electricity makes sense if you want to transport energy over long distances and then effectively convert this electrical energy into mechanical energy or other (magnetic, radiation, ...) at the site where it is consumed and above managing demand as does our electricity grid (in short, adapting to our whims, to the sum of the vagaries of users of the grid). But Despite the recent conversion efficiency of electricity-in the case of electric motors is used for 85% of the power to make it mechanically there is a 20% loss in the network caused by thermal dissipation and the voltage transformation losses. And this must be added the initial losses in the conversion of sunlight or wind power into electricity. Naturally, many more steps of transformation taking place more energy is dissipated along the way and less effective a process. But we need to move from the mains so much energy? Can not we capture and consume energy locally renewable? Our ancestors did, and our current knowledge we should be able to improve it. Here is a non-exhaustive list of various methods to make more efficient use of renewable energy sources, all share a distinctive feature: the use of energy is distributed, local-global non-centralized.
- solar power Comprehensive use of energy from the sun begins in the very conception of the homes and factories, using passive solar designs . Thus, reduced considerably the needs for heating, cooling and lighting. Although more difficult designs liabilities is to find the optimal formula adapted to the specific climate where the building is situated in countries like Spain that have been inhabited for millennia, no need to reinvent the wheel. On the shores of the Mediterranean traditional houses were low and were whitewashed, to reduce exposure to intense heat and reflect more of the incoming solar radiation. In mountain areas, the roofs are steep to prevent accumulation of snow, and the materials used, other than local, favor the thermal insulation, such as the board, also strongly influences the design (narrow windows, thick walls) and the location (on the sunny side of the mountain in preference to the shade). During the twentieth century, much has been building expertise that will help them greatly improve the design and implementation of housing to accommodate a situation in which no power on. Apart from passive solar, solar concentration devices create simple task is affordable and can provide hot water and, with minor adaptation of electricity to a home in these latitudes but, yes, in a discontinuous manner. Higher concentration systems based on salt cylinders molten allowed to accumulate energy and give a more uniform output, technology not available to a home but simple and robust, and further than photovoltaics.
- Wind: have traditionally been used mills Wind for tasks as varied as water pumping, grain milling, oil extraction from olives and other industrial uses. Direct mechanical transmission of motion of the blades to power a machine has the advantage of saving energy losses by converting torque to electricity (unknown to this author, but that surely are important) and discussed and transmitted over the network (about 20%) and conversion of electricity to mechanical motion (depending on engine type and operating system, and although effective can easily involve losses of 15%). The drawbacks of this design are two main types: local and inflexibility. With regard to locality, the work is performed at the location of the mill, so to avoid losing too much energy transporting raw materials to the mill and converted from the mill as raw material production and consumption of finished product must be in places not too far from the mill. As for inflexibility, if it is coupled to a mill a particular system probably can not be changed easily use (although you can always attach the mill at a PTO as tractors and engage or disengage the relevant equipment as needed.) Be added to that the scale that allow these facilities is smaller than that gives us the power today, or whether they think when the infrastructure has to study in detail what you want done and how volume. As the future looks especially bright for wind power is for marine navigation: the old sailing clippers were capable of reaching speeds of 15 knots in excess of 11 knots that many carriers today do not dare transfer not to spend too much fuel (although much smaller clippers were displaced mass).
- Hydropower: historically had water mills, which are discussed here for purposes similar to those of wind. Although its capacity is much less energy than hydroelectric dams, not suffer from the problem of silting of wetlands (which we'll talk when we discuss the future of hydropower). In addition, there are interesting designs, like the floating mills , allowing better use of current energy and also infrastructure can bring wherever necessary at all times.
- Biofuels: machines probably make the best use of "biofuels" are the animals and men themselves. Versatile, convertible, easily reprogrammable and autoreparantes for limited damage, its energy requirements are moderate, although its power is too. For certain uses of force likely to animal and human is the best option, at last, after all, not so long ago that the machine guns the U.S. Army climbed the mountains on the back of a mule. Nor does while the tram system was moving mules Even in crowded areas such as New York. In urban areas such mobility creates health problems because the testimonies of horses, but who had the advantage to fertilize your garden (see series Valencia full color "of the defunct blog" bargain is running out " .)
- Engineering: Although not strictly energy sources that spoke in this section, it must be noted that good engineering can improve, and by far the performance of the various sources. Of ancient human beings by machines has increased its capacity to do work even at the cost of reducing the speed with which made. Result of this ingenuity are the pulleys, winches and hoists, and highways rope, zip lines and swings and slides of all kinds.
Why this insistence, then, the use of renewable energy for electricity production? Because this pattern of exploitation of renewable energies is a model of large-scale network and supports not only Taylorization work, but also the concentration of capital in equipment and improvement of economic returns. In addition, large network models, with its large facilities, provide great returns to investors. But if the goal is not unbridled economic growth, but have a society in balance, in full, sustainable, growing only in human progress and knowledge, the major networks, as we have discussed today, are first a hindrance than a desirable goal . We are so used to this big network model do not question it, to the point that is all that is discussed in the media that we do not realize that this obsession with a certain type of exploitation is exactly what you can do viable society.
If this post is part of the series "Preparing for the transition" is because in order to harness these energies with great performance and a sustainable and maintainable in a shortage of energy has to begin now to think of something that goes beyond the paradigm of grid-scale distribution and start devise local systems to better use.
renewable energy use, and do it wisely, so distributed and adapted to each application.
Salu2,
AMT
P. Data: During the next two weeks may be less connected than usual. I hope to resume normal activity on May 10.
Tuesday, April 19, 2011
Browish Blue Spots On Ankles And Feet
Location: Asia-Lima
Thursday, April 14, 2011
Bradstreet Beige Color
Why will not solve the energy crisis
Dear readers,
A first explanation for those of you more time to follow me: this post there is nothing new, or not substantially, just try with that letter put together some ideas already expressed in posts and comments above. The main thing was voiced in " The limits of renewable capital" and " The EROEI of all-electric society ." I think, anyway, it's time to fix recap what my position on the future of the energy crisis that is both an economic crisis that is both a financial crisis that is both an environmental crisis that is both a political crisis, which is in short, a crisis model for its lack of sustainability.
The comments of the last posts have been a number of ideas to improve efficiency systems use renewable energy, and have even been proposed some new renewable sources waiting to be exploited. All the discussions and proposals are set out in purely technical aspects specific to each proposal and are not able to see the overall difficulties greatly complicate if not prevent altogether, the future development of these options. Let's do a quick review of these problems. To begin, do a lot of separation between the systems that produce electricity and biofuels, whose problems and limitations are different.
Biofuels now account for about 3% of all oil and equivalents consumed in the world, and that is getting worldwide consuming 6.5% of the grain harvest to 8% of the vegetable oil . Taking into account the problems that are causing food shortages, further increase our consumption of biofuels may be suicidal, because the final problem is not confined to the poorest countries, as already discussed , some of the most affected countries are producers of oil and time are heavily dependent on food outside, and this causes internal instability and unrest, and eventually supply problems for us rich countries. Some might argue that the problems of global food shortages have more to do with poor harvests this year in Russia (by the drought and fires) and Australia (ironically, by the torrential rains and floods) that abuse biofuels. However, in an interesting article Stuart Staniford present the following figure that is very enlightening:
In graphic compares the variations on the trend average wheat production in Russia ( fluctuations, red line) with the amount of grain (an average crude but it serves to get an idea of \u200b\u200borders of magnitude) allocated to biofuels worldwide (blue line; value is represented as negative because it is a detriment on the other uses of cereal). The rapidly increasing use of corn for ethanol is several times higher than the annual crop fluctuations. All that is added as a problems already identified in a previous post, the most consistent low TRE (English: EROEI) of biofuels, issues that apparently can not trace or the second-generation biofuels (cellulosic ethanol and biodiesel from algae), and it will be apparent that biofuels, although they will have a place in our energy future (for good energy density and to already have engines that can take) are not never produced a much larger scale of the current (even more likely to decrease).
With respect to all other sources of renewable generation, his main problem is to generate electricity, not liquid fuels such as high energy density that we used to. As a result of which, produced a succession of problems and interactions that tend to limit or banish, the massive introduction behold a relationship, certainly not exhaustive (particularized for the case of Spain, but surely with the weather here is extrapolated to comment other countries):
That is one thing clear: I am not against renewable energy. In the medium and long term is the only thing that remains, and is and has to be our future project. We simply have to be realistic about how and why we can exploit. Humanity for thousands of years taking advantage of these energies, so if we overcome our hubris that blinds us we will be able to see how to use them.
Salu2, AMT
 |
| Source: sapedia.gosaints.org |
Dear readers,
A first explanation for those of you more time to follow me: this post there is nothing new, or not substantially, just try with that letter put together some ideas already expressed in posts and comments above. The main thing was voiced in " The limits of renewable capital" and " The EROEI of all-electric society ." I think, anyway, it's time to fix recap what my position on the future of the energy crisis that is both an economic crisis that is both a financial crisis that is both an environmental crisis that is both a political crisis, which is in short, a crisis model for its lack of sustainability.
The comments of the last posts have been a number of ideas to improve efficiency systems use renewable energy, and have even been proposed some new renewable sources waiting to be exploited. All the discussions and proposals are set out in purely technical aspects specific to each proposal and are not able to see the overall difficulties greatly complicate if not prevent altogether, the future development of these options. Let's do a quick review of these problems. To begin, do a lot of separation between the systems that produce electricity and biofuels, whose problems and limitations are different.
Biofuels now account for about 3% of all oil and equivalents consumed in the world, and that is getting worldwide consuming 6.5% of the grain harvest to 8% of the vegetable oil . Taking into account the problems that are causing food shortages, further increase our consumption of biofuels may be suicidal, because the final problem is not confined to the poorest countries, as already discussed , some of the most affected countries are producers of oil and time are heavily dependent on food outside, and this causes internal instability and unrest, and eventually supply problems for us rich countries. Some might argue that the problems of global food shortages have more to do with poor harvests this year in Russia (by the drought and fires) and Australia (ironically, by the torrential rains and floods) that abuse biofuels. However, in an interesting article Stuart Staniford present the following figure that is very enlightening:
In graphic compares the variations on the trend average wheat production in Russia ( fluctuations, red line) with the amount of grain (an average crude but it serves to get an idea of \u200b\u200borders of magnitude) allocated to biofuels worldwide (blue line; value is represented as negative because it is a detriment on the other uses of cereal). The rapidly increasing use of corn for ethanol is several times higher than the annual crop fluctuations. All that is added as a problems already identified in a previous post, the most consistent low TRE (English: EROEI) of biofuels, issues that apparently can not trace or the second-generation biofuels (cellulosic ethanol and biodiesel from algae), and it will be apparent that biofuels, although they will have a place in our energy future (for good energy density and to already have engines that can take) are not never produced a much larger scale of the current (even more likely to decrease).
With respect to all other sources of renewable generation, his main problem is to generate electricity, not liquid fuels such as high energy density that we used to. As a result of which, produced a succession of problems and interactions that tend to limit or banish, the massive introduction behold a relationship, certainly not exhaustive (particularized for the case of Spain, but surely with the weather here is extrapolated to comment other countries):
- Electricity consumption in Spain is not able to grow since the beginning of the acute phase of the crisis. The promise of electric cars are not just met (and we've talked about why three times: 1 , 2, 3 , and gift a more general discussion) and no electric car there is no increase in consumption are possible or as often praised and announced intelligent networks with distributed storage (and paid by the consumer, faith). That makes more economic interest in investment in power generation is limited.
- total electric power installed in Spain is 98 GW to cover a power consumption equivalent to an average of 32 GW, with peak demand of just over 45 GW and valleys of about 20 GW. Although the load factor from various sources, particularly renewables, is considerably less than one, overall installed capacity in Spain is greater than necessary to ensure stability of the electrical system, as consumption.
- Because of this excess generation capacity, and in spite of net exports to Portugal, Morocco and pásmense, France (which has many problems with the supply of uranium, but we will discuss another day) The fact is that traditional generation companies are losing a lot of money (or rather, you lose the division of power generation), since to ensure supply when demand peaks are kept a few power plants and combined cycle minimum active power waiting to take action if necessary. But with the tariff system for electricity generation in Spain, are paid every kilowatt-hours of electricity consumed at the price of the most expensive source has been used, which is always the last to join, always start by the kilowatt · nuclear time (because you can not regularly go to fixed gear), then if necessary, add the wind and other sources of special arrangements, after finally hydro and thermal plants, the network has national coverage and is interconnected with those of our neighbors, but consists of subnets and a part of the generation is managed so relatively local, so it is possible that in an area of \u200b\u200bSpain are building power plants while in others it is not necessary. The problem occurs when between nuclear and wind will cover all the demand, which happens ever more frequently, because that makes kWh will be paying almost $ 0. For this reason, the managers of these big companies regularly charge against renewables, and particularly against the wind, they are ruining the business.
- To appease utilities, and to address certain perceived abuses (most bleeding was the case of solar wind produced electricity at night, if we have to trust your records) the Government has redefined the support system to new energies, eliminating or greatly reducing subsidies. This makes investment less attractive in them, because the time for payback (payback time) grows significantly and this investment is seen as less financially attractive.
- In this context it is hard to believe it worthwhile to invest in power generation entrepreneur. The truth is that investment is stagnating or falling, and that is that no one can force an investor to pull their money, rather than a strategic investment is needed for the country. The solution, say some readers, is that it is the government who ordered this investment. But how? Embedded as we are in a financial crisis the Government of Spain is increasing difficulty in raising money for his expenses, and in this context is difficult to convey the need to get into a market, spoiling the competition therein and damaging the commercial interests of companies . And over at great cost to the state. It's obviously not going to do well.
- We've already discussed here: the energy from various sources is not necessarily fungible, and therefore serves not account for all that we Mw ⋅ h generate, if we do not use it to existing corporate applications. And apart from the cars is the use of trucks, ships, aircraft and heavy machinery. The battery technology today has progressed a lot, but its energy density is still about 100 times less than gasoline or diesel. It seems wiser, therefore, to use another vector, and one possibility is hydrogen. But, as already discussed, the small molecules that form hydrogen when trying to contain a certain pressure (necessary for good energy density) is rapidly released from its container if the walls are not very dense (and therefore very expensive .) Transform hydrogen power (hydrolyzing) wastes between 33 and 50% of electricity used, and the comments above has to do to eat soon, it is clear that hydrogen is a bad choice. And fuel cells that use hydrogen more efficiently are still very expensive ... So what to do? It is proposing to quickly convert organic matter into methane (which is over 80% natural gas) using electricity, but have not achieved commercial developments and necessary ...
- But to further deterioration, there are many industrial uses fossil fuels are not easily replaced due to loss of efficiency, by electrical means. It is unthinkable to have the large ovens that require cement to make concrete electrically powered instead of gas and how to make steel without coal coke? Without solving these problems, the necessary increase in electricity consumption will not occur, and we will run over essential commodities.
- Some analysts say the nuclear and renewable energy tracts of fossil fuels (fossil fuel extenders ), ie, can increase the power of our fuels fossils but they can not exist without them. And it certainly can not create, operate, maintain and dismantle these facilities without extensive use of fossil fuels, and it is difficult to imagine how we could do without them, especially considering the problems of storage and energy density discussed now.
- The economic crisis that is connected and feedback to the energy, and therefore it can never end will cause the consumption capacity of individuals and businesses decay indefinitely. And pray also that the power consumption, with investment in generation will become most unlikely and endless brawls between supporters of the pro-nuclear and wind increase, which the two factions dreaming of a future powered only by your preferred choice. In the end, their own power are at risk of bankruptcy and go bankrupt, its services and infrastructure deteriorate.
- To counteract the above effect, it may eventually impose a war economy, perhaps through an authoritarian regime. At that time, many people would have to work almost as a force to build the new infrastructure. That will lead to much political instability and the loss of the sense of this infrastructure, because if consumers become virtually slaves of those who are paid the minimum ergo have no purchasing power, what sense does it seek to establish major infrastructure? Since we could not also enjoy the benefits of this energy, better physical effort directly employ their own benefit by planting the land. Depending on the location, the obvious contradiction (another way of looking at it is that the EROEI of renewable facilities created and maintained with human muscle has a very low value) will create tensions and riots, and make it much more difficult for renewable utopia.
That is one thing clear: I am not against renewable energy. In the medium and long term is the only thing that remains, and is and has to be our future project. We simply have to be realistic about how and why we can exploit. Humanity for thousands of years taking advantage of these energies, so if we overcome our hubris that blinds us we will be able to see how to use them.
Salu2, AMT
Thursday, April 7, 2011
How To Build Horizontal Surfboard Racks
When the bell rings
Dear readers,
As a child, somewhere, ahem, rarely occasion I had a major blunder during an examination. Maybe it was a review of History, or Mathematics, the fact is that just asked me about topics that had no well-learned, or had some doubts and gaps and did not quite find the right way to develop the theme. Over time, you learn to focus on those aspects that one knows or suspects that will be able to defend, accepting that the review will not be perfect, there will be parts that will be abandoned to their fate and be rated at zero, but at final assembly can pass the bar for approval. But, of course, to learn the optimal strategy with which to manage the scarce resource that is being self-knowledge one must first fail a couple (or more) times. Who has not passed it, needing to concentrate on an exam, just try to draw from the depths of the conscious and subconscious happy date of the battle of Las Navas de Tolosa or the coronation of Charlemagne, or how did permutations with repetitions, leaving just his imagination unfettered by the hills of Ubeda? And the worst of these recreational trips is that, suddenly, you realize that there are five or ten minutes for the review were to end, not because a spontaneous return of those green pastures, no, but because he said aloud the teacher. I stormed at the time a cold sweat and oppression in the stomach of a intensity difficult to describe. And then you could accelerate as much as the activity of neurons, but only a glance you could not stop looking at the clock class, which was relentless fall minute by minute. "Id delivering and examinations, please," you sweat trickling down his temples. The comrades had given their mostly written test, and there you were with two or three behind forever. If the teacher was lenient let you keep writing until the moment last, which was when the bell rang marking the end of the class. Then, slowly, passing through the desks behind and snatched them without violence but merciless examination. And then came up your desk ...
it comes to the case of financial assistance and inevitable that the final will be on economic reality, of Portugal. With him are now three euro zone countries that have undergone surgery (sorry, that have benefited from the bailout fund), after Greece and Ireland. Among the three would have needed about 300,000 billion bailout fund, which in its constitution had 500,000 million euros (constants and "in kind") provided by the European Union countries and another 250,000 million from the IMF , in total, 750,000 million, but lately there is talk of extending this fund. The latter is natural, due to their own internal imbalances and English positions in Portugal, it is quite likely that Spain will have to end up benefiting from the bailout fund itself within months, with the aggravating circumstance that the English economy (counted as GDP) is more than twice the Greek, Irish and Portuguese together and therefore is easy to believe that Spain's financial needs will exceed half a billion euros (officially Spain's total debt is 250% of its GDP, which is approximately one billion euros, though many analysts to rise to 350% and more).
should be very visible that the IMF is putting a substantial amount in the fund's rescue. The International Monetary Fund , or IMF, is not exactly an intergovernmental organization to use. Although formally a UN specialized agency, administrative structure, financial and, above all, governance is determined by the economic weight of each country. In practice, representatives of big firms in the world have de facto control of the institution, and thereby gain political visibility that allows them to implement their agenda. These policies IMF always pursue one goal: that big borrowers do not lose money. Therefore, when a country needs to go to the direct or indirect supervision of the IMF, its "recipes" shock not seek the country's economic growth but to ensure by whatever means its solvency, although this is achieved by destroying the heritage compromising its current and future economic growth. Governments bow to the strict conditions imposed by the IMF and that if financial markets would be closed to them and could not finance its public budget (nowadays most Western governments operate on the basis of continued funding of current expenditure and investments). Such simple words, the IMF is the fraction collector, and you go to pay your debts, with interest to their customers if needed will force you to sell the jewels and your grandmother's grocery store at which you earn bread, and if you do not agree to it suddenly close the tap and you can not pay your suppliers, so also you would go to ruin. It is a grotesque simplification, but it captures the basic idea (at least I did not say that a thug breaks your legs, that is, an army comes over to stay with your resources, but that is another story ...) . Some of my overseas readers may verify your personal experience what it is and how it works the IMF.
With the arrival of the rescue fund, Portugal ran out of time to speculate: the teacher has collected and consideration. It has not made the necessary infrastructure to reduce its dependence on oil and will no longer how to finance them. Nor can fund more research into biofuels or nuclear fusion will be lucky if he can keep having. You have not strengthened their local networks and has driven energy descent plan, and now will be much more difficult to do, while oil and external financing are becoming more expensive. Portugal simply running out of phase 1 of the collapse (as discussed in the corresponding post what are the stages of collapse ) and falls into a hole that, given the historical context of declining energy availability, costs out. In the process now starts in the neighboring country of the writer, the economy will shrink and its energy consumption will decline, which will be good for everyone else that may feed spoils. Clear that Portugal is small and hardly notice the effect of the resources, so do not expect a big drop in oil prices over the months and years will this induced energy and economic decline of Portugal. Of course, to Portugal this move will be a blow, for all practical purposes to Portugal the decline post-Peak Oil will be accelerated. And, already discussed, each country will experience an epic particular, its own version of Peak Oil understood as its own decline in oil consumption, and hence energy.
As I repeated many times, the energy crisis will go for neighborhoods, so different in each place, so that although there are common features each region will experience a different start of the energy shortage. Moreover, the fact that they occur phase transitions characteristic of the right side of the Hubbert curve makes the economic downturn, with the subsequent drop in energy consumption, is perceived as the immediate cause of energy descent, and not vice versa, that is leading to talk of "Peak demand" as opposed to "peak production" or Peak Oil. Actually remove the myth of peak demand is fairly simple: if the problem is the height of demand, economic growth will end with strength, finish this cycle. If the problem is production, then this crisis never end in our current economic paradigm. However, it is expected for decades and decades that even countries that have fallen into this black hole in this catabolic collapse, affirm that the recovery is about to begin and that the energy descent is peak demand for multiple causes, so great is our blindness and strong faith in economic growth make us unable to recognize the Oil Crash even though they live it. This process will actually be involuntary catabolic collapse, with deliberate or accidental destruction of those structures that we can no longer maintain. Worse still, destroy those facilities or investments needed to alleviate the energy shortage: the paralyze the exploration and development of new wells in the affected countries or companies are operated collapsing native country, are left to build power plants, wind farms, etc. In the medium term the situation will degenerate into chaos, to the aggravation of collapse following the different phases. The fact that for the rest of the participants in this game, countries that have not yet collapsed, the situation is more or less normal, with an efficient distribution of oil and energy in general, would not even in the country collapsing is to be aware that we are experiencing an energy crisis; Moreover, when attempting to address the issue will not touch it, because more urgent matters - the economic and financial crisis, demand our attention. Who wants to invest in a new rail line if it can not fund it? Who will consider establishing an emergency plan for energy savings when the priority is to reduce the rampant unemployment? Who will invest in research if not already used to pay the bills? Not perceive a problem with the power until prices stay high permanently, and then, when the volatile phase price finished, it will be because the sharp decline of production will have begun, and at that time will be too late to do anything. That is, when we know that we have an energy crisis because it is fully evident by then it will be terminal.
economic intervention (sorry, rescue) means an irreversible deepening of this complex process and will not be recognized for what it is: a systemic crisis associated with a natural resource crisis. In Portugal we have collected the test and the teacher has already stopped at our desk. It is a meager consolation stupid while those countries looking at us over his shoulder, calling us to face PIGS (acronym in English disgraced countries) have not yet realized that after collecting our discussion the teacher will be at their desks too. It turns out that none of us, from Greece to the U.S., has launched reforms that were needed at all levels, energy, economic and financial (not to mention the environment), we all have gaping thinking fantasies Network smart power, millions of electric cars , hydrogen fuel cells algae biofuel, nuclear reactors and rapid regenerative melting and so forth ... we let fly our imagination, instead of answering the test. It is too late for regrets.
I do not know for whom the bell tolls, it tolls for thee.
Salu2,
AMT
 |
| image blog "Time 4 Dogs" |
Dear readers,
As a child, somewhere, ahem, rarely occasion I had a major blunder during an examination. Maybe it was a review of History, or Mathematics, the fact is that just asked me about topics that had no well-learned, or had some doubts and gaps and did not quite find the right way to develop the theme. Over time, you learn to focus on those aspects that one knows or suspects that will be able to defend, accepting that the review will not be perfect, there will be parts that will be abandoned to their fate and be rated at zero, but at final assembly can pass the bar for approval. But, of course, to learn the optimal strategy with which to manage the scarce resource that is being self-knowledge one must first fail a couple (or more) times. Who has not passed it, needing to concentrate on an exam, just try to draw from the depths of the conscious and subconscious happy date of the battle of Las Navas de Tolosa or the coronation of Charlemagne, or how did permutations with repetitions, leaving just his imagination unfettered by the hills of Ubeda? And the worst of these recreational trips is that, suddenly, you realize that there are five or ten minutes for the review were to end, not because a spontaneous return of those green pastures, no, but because he said aloud the teacher. I stormed at the time a cold sweat and oppression in the stomach of a intensity difficult to describe. And then you could accelerate as much as the activity of neurons, but only a glance you could not stop looking at the clock class, which was relentless fall minute by minute. "Id delivering and examinations, please," you sweat trickling down his temples. The comrades had given their mostly written test, and there you were with two or three behind forever. If the teacher was lenient let you keep writing until the moment last, which was when the bell rang marking the end of the class. Then, slowly, passing through the desks behind and snatched them without violence but merciless examination. And then came up your desk ...
it comes to the case of financial assistance and inevitable that the final will be on economic reality, of Portugal. With him are now three euro zone countries that have undergone surgery (sorry, that have benefited from the bailout fund), after Greece and Ireland. Among the three would have needed about 300,000 billion bailout fund, which in its constitution had 500,000 million euros (constants and "in kind") provided by the European Union countries and another 250,000 million from the IMF , in total, 750,000 million, but lately there is talk of extending this fund. The latter is natural, due to their own internal imbalances and English positions in Portugal, it is quite likely that Spain will have to end up benefiting from the bailout fund itself within months, with the aggravating circumstance that the English economy (counted as GDP) is more than twice the Greek, Irish and Portuguese together and therefore is easy to believe that Spain's financial needs will exceed half a billion euros (officially Spain's total debt is 250% of its GDP, which is approximately one billion euros, though many analysts to rise to 350% and more).
should be very visible that the IMF is putting a substantial amount in the fund's rescue. The International Monetary Fund , or IMF, is not exactly an intergovernmental organization to use. Although formally a UN specialized agency, administrative structure, financial and, above all, governance is determined by the economic weight of each country. In practice, representatives of big firms in the world have de facto control of the institution, and thereby gain political visibility that allows them to implement their agenda. These policies IMF always pursue one goal: that big borrowers do not lose money. Therefore, when a country needs to go to the direct or indirect supervision of the IMF, its "recipes" shock not seek the country's economic growth but to ensure by whatever means its solvency, although this is achieved by destroying the heritage compromising its current and future economic growth. Governments bow to the strict conditions imposed by the IMF and that if financial markets would be closed to them and could not finance its public budget (nowadays most Western governments operate on the basis of continued funding of current expenditure and investments). Such simple words, the IMF is the fraction collector, and you go to pay your debts, with interest to their customers if needed will force you to sell the jewels and your grandmother's grocery store at which you earn bread, and if you do not agree to it suddenly close the tap and you can not pay your suppliers, so also you would go to ruin. It is a grotesque simplification, but it captures the basic idea (at least I did not say that a thug breaks your legs, that is, an army comes over to stay with your resources, but that is another story ...) . Some of my overseas readers may verify your personal experience what it is and how it works the IMF.
With the arrival of the rescue fund, Portugal ran out of time to speculate: the teacher has collected and consideration. It has not made the necessary infrastructure to reduce its dependence on oil and will no longer how to finance them. Nor can fund more research into biofuels or nuclear fusion will be lucky if he can keep having. You have not strengthened their local networks and has driven energy descent plan, and now will be much more difficult to do, while oil and external financing are becoming more expensive. Portugal simply running out of phase 1 of the collapse (as discussed in the corresponding post what are the stages of collapse ) and falls into a hole that, given the historical context of declining energy availability, costs out. In the process now starts in the neighboring country of the writer, the economy will shrink and its energy consumption will decline, which will be good for everyone else that may feed spoils. Clear that Portugal is small and hardly notice the effect of the resources, so do not expect a big drop in oil prices over the months and years will this induced energy and economic decline of Portugal. Of course, to Portugal this move will be a blow, for all practical purposes to Portugal the decline post-Peak Oil will be accelerated. And, already discussed, each country will experience an epic particular, its own version of Peak Oil understood as its own decline in oil consumption, and hence energy.
As I repeated many times, the energy crisis will go for neighborhoods, so different in each place, so that although there are common features each region will experience a different start of the energy shortage. Moreover, the fact that they occur phase transitions characteristic of the right side of the Hubbert curve makes the economic downturn, with the subsequent drop in energy consumption, is perceived as the immediate cause of energy descent, and not vice versa, that is leading to talk of "Peak demand" as opposed to "peak production" or Peak Oil. Actually remove the myth of peak demand is fairly simple: if the problem is the height of demand, economic growth will end with strength, finish this cycle. If the problem is production, then this crisis never end in our current economic paradigm. However, it is expected for decades and decades that even countries that have fallen into this black hole in this catabolic collapse, affirm that the recovery is about to begin and that the energy descent is peak demand for multiple causes, so great is our blindness and strong faith in economic growth make us unable to recognize the Oil Crash even though they live it. This process will actually be involuntary catabolic collapse, with deliberate or accidental destruction of those structures that we can no longer maintain. Worse still, destroy those facilities or investments needed to alleviate the energy shortage: the paralyze the exploration and development of new wells in the affected countries or companies are operated collapsing native country, are left to build power plants, wind farms, etc. In the medium term the situation will degenerate into chaos, to the aggravation of collapse following the different phases. The fact that for the rest of the participants in this game, countries that have not yet collapsed, the situation is more or less normal, with an efficient distribution of oil and energy in general, would not even in the country collapsing is to be aware that we are experiencing an energy crisis; Moreover, when attempting to address the issue will not touch it, because more urgent matters - the economic and financial crisis, demand our attention. Who wants to invest in a new rail line if it can not fund it? Who will consider establishing an emergency plan for energy savings when the priority is to reduce the rampant unemployment? Who will invest in research if not already used to pay the bills? Not perceive a problem with the power until prices stay high permanently, and then, when the volatile phase price finished, it will be because the sharp decline of production will have begun, and at that time will be too late to do anything. That is, when we know that we have an energy crisis because it is fully evident by then it will be terminal.
economic intervention (sorry, rescue) means an irreversible deepening of this complex process and will not be recognized for what it is: a systemic crisis associated with a natural resource crisis. In Portugal we have collected the test and the teacher has already stopped at our desk. It is a meager consolation stupid while those countries looking at us over his shoulder, calling us to face PIGS (acronym in English disgraced countries) have not yet realized that after collecting our discussion the teacher will be at their desks too. It turns out that none of us, from Greece to the U.S., has launched reforms that were needed at all levels, energy, economic and financial (not to mention the environment), we all have gaping thinking fantasies Network smart power, millions of electric cars , hydrogen fuel cells algae biofuel, nuclear reactors and rapid regenerative melting and so forth ... we let fly our imagination, instead of answering the test. It is too late for regrets.
I do not know for whom the bell tolls, it tolls for thee.
Salu2,
AMT
Sunday, April 3, 2011
At&t Uverse Deleted All Recording
Our relationship with technology and economics Energy
Dear readers,
Due to the incorporation of a growing number of readers from diverse backgrounds to blog, and the extension you are taking the same after of only one year, during the recent past is producing a discussion and renewed discussion of concepts that had already been spoken previous posts (although it is fair to recognize that not always with a possibly required). This is normal, and you can not blame the new readers to reach exactly the middle of the discussion when the aim is gradually extending it to all of society. Fortunately, one of the advantages of a dynamic system such as a blog is to be able to go linking concepts discussed above without cutting the current discourse, so, for example, every time I write for the first time in a expression post "Peak Oil " bind soil, as now, a wikipedia article explaining the concept, or our syllabus on the website of OCO (failing, as I have noted, to have a text specific presentation that I hope to write to calm a day now, God and my commitments through.) That is why I strongly encourage readers, even if this requires many minutes of reading, to be attentive to the fractions of the text marked with the color of hyperlinks, to follow if the link text refers to a concept they deem important, whether he referred to the problems of a fully electric society, the practical problems the gap between the feasible and profitable , how to resolve the dilemma of whether or must react and not before the threat of Peak Oil why the current crisis will never end (within our paradigm, that is) or how it might occur the end of the economy or of democracy (leaving aside the more porn trials - and probably why most popular - on what he look like a collapse and what would be the worst case scenario if everything conspired against us, our stupidity included). Each link text refers in turn to others, themselves and others, and finally getting an accurate picture can take hours and hours of reading, which discourages many readers who, spoiled by society of "anything now," the childish impulse, not attribute value to the effort and introspection. However, what is the point made when discussing complex issues, claiming that their solution will come from an idea that has occurred after thinking about it a few minutes? It is likely that the obvious solutions have already been discussed and discarded by many very capable people who have spent years studying the issue, and although this does not prevent an occurrence of sudden personal and may have value, before going to insist on its merits it is better to some literature search and see if it was discussed and what problems have been identified to date in its detriment. When one makes the effort of technical analysis is often just not realizing that avoids an conspiracy between corrupt politicians and corporations to destroy the world satanic (with them inside, such is its evil who do not mind going to hell too), but simply the laws of physics, with the executive arm of thermodynamics, are preventing the engine miracles water or the use of zero-point energy, and are severely limiting the deployment of fast breeder reactors and use thorium that would lead us to an era of nuclear renaissance (not to mention that electricity is not what we need most , but other uses of energy). Start
have in society is a growing perception that the economic crisis that surrounds us going for long (this is the first thing I told the taxi driver who took me on Friday at Madrid Chamartin station), and even some suspicion that in fact can not end. Some less well begin to sense that the energy shortage is the key piece in this puzzle, in part because almost inadvertently mainstream media are getting more news on the subject, related mainly with the need to save energy or look for new sources. That concern still a little drowsy corporate which is possibly bringing some new readers here at once makes many of them, still infected by the magical thinking of tecnooptimismo that dominates our society, react in front of the unpleasant conclusions that emerge from some analysis here presented and are released to the counter, trying to impose further demonstrate that there are many solutions to our defeatism (sometimes implies "ecologeta") have not considered. This reaction also find it normal, because one of the vices of partisan installed in our political system leads to see if the reasons above there is an interest weighted "party" and that there are no universal arguments, but membership option A or B, without the possibility of non-alignment (and alienation). Therefore, all the arguments presented in a discussion (and not just here, everywhere) are always suspect, and never truly objective. It is interesting to see how everyone sets out to propose this or that option without first consider whether you really understand a question that was answered here: what is the energy .
We have a curious relationship with our technology. Man field of a hundred or two hundred years no large studies needed to understand the technology around him. He had the hoe, which was given the curved shape better suited to penetrate and remove soil properly. The mill had crushed the seed or squeezing the fruit. Her spinning wheel to spin, to light the candle, pencil or pen to write the few who knew it. All objects used in their day to day had a precise function and a trivial mechanism, which could only improve efficiency through a more streamlined design. However, we move in a world where our understanding of everyday technology is limited or null. We use computers to write or read these writings, but do not understand the operation of its circuitry, or even know how the monitor where they appear. We call for mobile phones that are able to negotiate quickly with the antennas near their bandwidth for the transmission of our voice and our data. We drive cars that would not be able to repair, even if we had the tools, if you break down. Nuesto every day is full of magic, of a suspension of the critical capacity to ask: "And how will this work?". This suspension of critical thinking came to a head when we see or we explain how of our great facilities, from the processing station to a power plant, from aircraft to ships and trains. Our life is full of things that work without knowing why. And on top are very efficient. This high efficiency, combined with the aura of mystery that always surrounds the technology, fills us with awe and delight us, but produces a perverse effect: give up our responsability on the implementation of technology, an absolute delegate our supervision to others always identified and sometimes not in fact exist. And the consequences of this attitude can be catastrophic.
few weeks ago, it was still winter was on the train to my workplace. At one point I looked up and saw the image that I open this post. The monitor inside the car showed the time, the destination, a label stock with the seasons in which we had to pass and the temperature outside the train. As always. But something caught my attention and made me smile. "Wow, I thought," today it seems that it's cold. " The monitor showed a temperature of -47 degrees Celsius. Obviously, despite the untimely hour of the Alt Empordà not suffer as freezing temperatures at any time of year, just the outside temperature sensor gave a false reading, perhaps porque se habría estropeado, o porque estaba sucio o cubierto de hielo. Quizá la lectura era correcta y lo que funcionaba mal era la transmisión. La verdad es que no tengo ni idea de qué era exactamente lo que estaba fallando, porque lo desconozco todo sobre la tecnología que la compañía de trenes RENFE utiliza para medir la temperatura exterior, lo único que puedo saber a ciencia cierta es que el dato era completamente erróneo; fuera estaríamos quizá a cero grados, pero a -47...
Este fallo anecdótico en el monitor revela muchas cosas sobre nuestra actitud hacia la tecnología. De entrada, el que diseño el sistema no consideró importante implementar una revisión de los valores registrados, so if the reading was considered very wrong was not dumped on the screen at the end of the day, that figure is offered as a courtesy to the traveler, and does not matter if it is wrong. In short, the person you have entrusted to design the system that will provide important data has not believed that warn against otherwise harmless error. On the other hand, this same person is not considered that the failure was worthy of being reported for analysis and correction (traveled on trains several days gave the wrong value, do not know if it was always the same train). This is less safe, because the temperature sensor problems could be symptoms of something more serious, particularly if failure is caused by an error in the transmission subsystem, which could have major flaws then others, for example, in announcing the stop stations, which of course actually tend to fail and it is less safe. Moreover, the company that produces the defective system probably recycle the technology and sell it for a multitude of other applications, and in some cases, the malfunction can cause major problems, and just find that not surprise me to publicize their effectively the company boasts a client to RENFE and is responsible for commissioning these devices.
funny thing is that a regular user I'm from RENFE I can report a number of failures that often occur, particularly in the latest rolling stock, which introduced less than two years. Heating / air conditioning excessive or nonexistent, decks dislodged, leaving the light masses of cables, pour water toilets, doors that do not open ... little things without much importance, until in the summer of 2009 gave them all the time, one day that the catenary had fallen and the train, which came out 3 hours late, took three or four times its normal passage in a steamy afternoon in August to 40 degrees Celsius in the platforms of Barcelona Sants. On arrival at each station, the driver will have get off the train back to fit a door did not close one ... Fortunately, nobody fell off the train, it is not derailed and no one gave a faint, but gave me much to think. Those who went on that train (which was soon removed to make way for the new trains, which have begun to water before the former) we delegate our responsibility to "them", which deal with things, and assume that nothing bad could happen to us because they never let anything bad happen. The truth is that many things could have been quite unpleasant to be avoided among other reasons thanks to the skill of the operator (that kept to sprinting or abrupt braking, although that meant to slow down at times).
The problem with technology is that moves us to put ourselves in situations in which our animal instinct tells us to go out running, to flee, while our ratio of adults tells us: "Do not be kid there is nothing to worry about have it all calculated. The problem, as observed in the RENFE train and in many other contexts, is that economic decline is giving priority than ever to reduce costs over and above any other consideration. Or was no reduction in total costs which led to bad design of the nuclear Fukushima which compounded the problems of the earthquake and subsequent tsunami? And our blind faith in the technology we do not understand, which we do not know whether it is acting rightly or wrongly we do not know what to do, that faith in which we have been indoctrinated makes us flee rather than concentrate on the worst possible place , increasing human ravages caused unimaginable. If you do not understand that technology is a human fruit and as such is exposed to conditions that plague humans, starting with economic hardship and ending with the incompetence and meanness, then we foolishly increasing our exposure to risk.
Reflection today that Brent is now at $ 119 per barrel: Are the technicians in charge and responsible authorities to address the threat posed by Peak Oil? Can we trust their technical criteria? Do we follow like sheep also gets us to the slaughter of technical failure "unexpected" but predictable?
Salu2, AMT
Dear readers,
Due to the incorporation of a growing number of readers from diverse backgrounds to blog, and the extension you are taking the same after of only one year, during the recent past is producing a discussion and renewed discussion of concepts that had already been spoken previous posts (although it is fair to recognize that not always with a possibly required). This is normal, and you can not blame the new readers to reach exactly the middle of the discussion when the aim is gradually extending it to all of society. Fortunately, one of the advantages of a dynamic system such as a blog is to be able to go linking concepts discussed above without cutting the current discourse, so, for example, every time I write for the first time in a expression post "Peak Oil " bind soil, as now, a wikipedia article explaining the concept, or our syllabus on the website of OCO (failing, as I have noted, to have a text specific presentation that I hope to write to calm a day now, God and my commitments through.) That is why I strongly encourage readers, even if this requires many minutes of reading, to be attentive to the fractions of the text marked with the color of hyperlinks, to follow if the link text refers to a concept they deem important, whether he referred to the problems of a fully electric society, the practical problems the gap between the feasible and profitable , how to resolve the dilemma of whether or must react and not before the threat of Peak Oil why the current crisis will never end (within our paradigm, that is) or how it might occur the end of the economy or of democracy (leaving aside the more porn trials - and probably why most popular - on what he look like a collapse and what would be the worst case scenario if everything conspired against us, our stupidity included). Each link text refers in turn to others, themselves and others, and finally getting an accurate picture can take hours and hours of reading, which discourages many readers who, spoiled by society of "anything now," the childish impulse, not attribute value to the effort and introspection. However, what is the point made when discussing complex issues, claiming that their solution will come from an idea that has occurred after thinking about it a few minutes? It is likely that the obvious solutions have already been discussed and discarded by many very capable people who have spent years studying the issue, and although this does not prevent an occurrence of sudden personal and may have value, before going to insist on its merits it is better to some literature search and see if it was discussed and what problems have been identified to date in its detriment. When one makes the effort of technical analysis is often just not realizing that avoids an conspiracy between corrupt politicians and corporations to destroy the world satanic (with them inside, such is its evil who do not mind going to hell too), but simply the laws of physics, with the executive arm of thermodynamics, are preventing the engine miracles water or the use of zero-point energy, and are severely limiting the deployment of fast breeder reactors and use thorium that would lead us to an era of nuclear renaissance (not to mention that electricity is not what we need most , but other uses of energy). Start
have in society is a growing perception that the economic crisis that surrounds us going for long (this is the first thing I told the taxi driver who took me on Friday at Madrid Chamartin station), and even some suspicion that in fact can not end. Some less well begin to sense that the energy shortage is the key piece in this puzzle, in part because almost inadvertently mainstream media are getting more news on the subject, related mainly with the need to save energy or look for new sources. That concern still a little drowsy corporate which is possibly bringing some new readers here at once makes many of them, still infected by the magical thinking of tecnooptimismo that dominates our society, react in front of the unpleasant conclusions that emerge from some analysis here presented and are released to the counter, trying to impose further demonstrate that there are many solutions to our defeatism (sometimes implies "ecologeta") have not considered. This reaction also find it normal, because one of the vices of partisan installed in our political system leads to see if the reasons above there is an interest weighted "party" and that there are no universal arguments, but membership option A or B, without the possibility of non-alignment (and alienation). Therefore, all the arguments presented in a discussion (and not just here, everywhere) are always suspect, and never truly objective. It is interesting to see how everyone sets out to propose this or that option without first consider whether you really understand a question that was answered here: what is the energy .
We have a curious relationship with our technology. Man field of a hundred or two hundred years no large studies needed to understand the technology around him. He had the hoe, which was given the curved shape better suited to penetrate and remove soil properly. The mill had crushed the seed or squeezing the fruit. Her spinning wheel to spin, to light the candle, pencil or pen to write the few who knew it. All objects used in their day to day had a precise function and a trivial mechanism, which could only improve efficiency through a more streamlined design. However, we move in a world where our understanding of everyday technology is limited or null. We use computers to write or read these writings, but do not understand the operation of its circuitry, or even know how the monitor where they appear. We call for mobile phones that are able to negotiate quickly with the antennas near their bandwidth for the transmission of our voice and our data. We drive cars that would not be able to repair, even if we had the tools, if you break down. Nuesto every day is full of magic, of a suspension of the critical capacity to ask: "And how will this work?". This suspension of critical thinking came to a head when we see or we explain how of our great facilities, from the processing station to a power plant, from aircraft to ships and trains. Our life is full of things that work without knowing why. And on top are very efficient. This high efficiency, combined with the aura of mystery that always surrounds the technology, fills us with awe and delight us, but produces a perverse effect: give up our responsability on the implementation of technology, an absolute delegate our supervision to others always identified and sometimes not in fact exist. And the consequences of this attitude can be catastrophic.
few weeks ago, it was still winter was on the train to my workplace. At one point I looked up and saw the image that I open this post. The monitor inside the car showed the time, the destination, a label stock with the seasons in which we had to pass and the temperature outside the train. As always. But something caught my attention and made me smile. "Wow, I thought," today it seems that it's cold. " The monitor showed a temperature of -47 degrees Celsius. Obviously, despite the untimely hour of the Alt Empordà not suffer as freezing temperatures at any time of year, just the outside temperature sensor gave a false reading, perhaps porque se habría estropeado, o porque estaba sucio o cubierto de hielo. Quizá la lectura era correcta y lo que funcionaba mal era la transmisión. La verdad es que no tengo ni idea de qué era exactamente lo que estaba fallando, porque lo desconozco todo sobre la tecnología que la compañía de trenes RENFE utiliza para medir la temperatura exterior, lo único que puedo saber a ciencia cierta es que el dato era completamente erróneo; fuera estaríamos quizá a cero grados, pero a -47...
Este fallo anecdótico en el monitor revela muchas cosas sobre nuestra actitud hacia la tecnología. De entrada, el que diseño el sistema no consideró importante implementar una revisión de los valores registrados, so if the reading was considered very wrong was not dumped on the screen at the end of the day, that figure is offered as a courtesy to the traveler, and does not matter if it is wrong. In short, the person you have entrusted to design the system that will provide important data has not believed that warn against otherwise harmless error. On the other hand, this same person is not considered that the failure was worthy of being reported for analysis and correction (traveled on trains several days gave the wrong value, do not know if it was always the same train). This is less safe, because the temperature sensor problems could be symptoms of something more serious, particularly if failure is caused by an error in the transmission subsystem, which could have major flaws then others, for example, in announcing the stop stations, which of course actually tend to fail and it is less safe. Moreover, the company that produces the defective system probably recycle the technology and sell it for a multitude of other applications, and in some cases, the malfunction can cause major problems, and just find that not surprise me to publicize their effectively the company boasts a client to RENFE and is responsible for commissioning these devices.
funny thing is that a regular user I'm from RENFE I can report a number of failures that often occur, particularly in the latest rolling stock, which introduced less than two years. Heating / air conditioning excessive or nonexistent, decks dislodged, leaving the light masses of cables, pour water toilets, doors that do not open ... little things without much importance, until in the summer of 2009 gave them all the time, one day that the catenary had fallen and the train, which came out 3 hours late, took three or four times its normal passage in a steamy afternoon in August to 40 degrees Celsius in the platforms of Barcelona Sants. On arrival at each station, the driver will have get off the train back to fit a door did not close one ... Fortunately, nobody fell off the train, it is not derailed and no one gave a faint, but gave me much to think. Those who went on that train (which was soon removed to make way for the new trains, which have begun to water before the former) we delegate our responsibility to "them", which deal with things, and assume that nothing bad could happen to us because they never let anything bad happen. The truth is that many things could have been quite unpleasant to be avoided among other reasons thanks to the skill of the operator (that kept to sprinting or abrupt braking, although that meant to slow down at times).
The problem with technology is that moves us to put ourselves in situations in which our animal instinct tells us to go out running, to flee, while our ratio of adults tells us: "Do not be kid there is nothing to worry about have it all calculated. The problem, as observed in the RENFE train and in many other contexts, is that economic decline is giving priority than ever to reduce costs over and above any other consideration. Or was no reduction in total costs which led to bad design of the nuclear Fukushima which compounded the problems of the earthquake and subsequent tsunami? And our blind faith in the technology we do not understand, which we do not know whether it is acting rightly or wrongly we do not know what to do, that faith in which we have been indoctrinated makes us flee rather than concentrate on the worst possible place , increasing human ravages caused unimaginable. If you do not understand that technology is a human fruit and as such is exposed to conditions that plague humans, starting with economic hardship and ending with the incompetence and meanness, then we foolishly increasing our exposure to risk.
Reflection today that Brent is now at $ 119 per barrel: Are the technicians in charge and responsible authorities to address the threat posed by Peak Oil? Can we trust their technical criteria? Do we follow like sheep also gets us to the slaughter of technical failure "unexpected" but predictable?
Salu2, AMT
Friday, March 25, 2011
Long Charge Panasonic Lumix
 |
| Source: http://www.corbisimages. com |
Dear readers,
During the last two posts have discussed intensively on technical issues related to the safety of nuclear energy addressed comprehensively, not just looking at the process taking place in nuclear power plants . Well, that was the plan, but with the advent of Domenek most of the discussion has shifted to the viability of nuclear energy as an energy not only for the future, but as future energy . Domenek has spoken to us neatly on technological options that would allow better use of available resources uranium, disposal of hazardous radioactive waste and, ultimately, achieving a clean, safe and virtually eternal. But reality says nothing about it: as I pointed out a couple of weeks ago Mr. Tahull on the radio, and its own International Energy Agency provides that in the EU enlarges its nuclear power over the next 25 years - see Page 230 of the latest World Energy Outlook. Given such a contradiction between the promises made by technology and the reality of what is developing as the energy crisis is set to full extension, reaches a conclusion Domenek popular today: it's all our fault corrupt and inept leaders, who are not able to stimulate the necessary changes. But while our political leaders are certainly not innocent (among other things because know but silent), the problem is actually more complex and what we find difficult to grasp is that these "solutions" (it is doubtful that anything that encourages BAU is a solution) are not really viable, not from the technical point of view - maybe yes or maybe not-but economically.
One of the first things that should make clear is that the energy is in our society, precursor economic activity. Besides serving to move our trucks and machinery, it allows people to travel long distances or enjoy advanced electronic devices, even for those who have recreational uses, are in fact the industry and benefit of others. Consume large amounts of energy, and while certainly wasteful, it is a prerequisite for reaching the levels of development and economic exploitation that we have today. So much so that more sober lifestyle can reduce a small percentage of our final energy consumption, but if we try to reduce still further we will just affecting economic activity since the end we are reducing the consumption of goods and services accessories (eg, a weekend in Paris, a larger microwave, etc) affect the income statement of the respective companies.
In his seminal work, " Causes and consequences of the 2007-2008 oil shock , Professor of Economics at the University of California San Diego James Hamilton concluded that the cost of the oil bill, and therefore that of energy, has a ceiling which, if exceeded, causes economic recession. The idea is simple: the impact energy prices cascaded throughout the production. That is, the energy cost of nuts increases the cost of the machine, which affects the cost of the products in the range of commercial intermediaries and sell it, and ultimately in all activities done with the machine in question. Over each link of the process reenters energy for assembly, maintenance, repair, transportation, distribution, etc. So every dollar that oil goes multiplies in increasing cost tens of dollars within each line of production and services of the economic system. In the end, there is a maximum value from which the increase is such that the products are sold enough to be considered less as margins and some other economic activities are no longer profitable. When the volume of such activities affected is large enough, then triggers a sudden spiral of economic destruction (because some businesses rely on others), instead of a smooth transition, is triggered, then a recession. James Hamilton estimates that U.S. the threshold to trigger a recession is when the oil bill exceeds 5% of GDP or 10% of the total energy bill. In the case of Spain, that limit could be lower given the lower energy efficiency in industrial processes in the country, but perhaps is more due to the use of more efficient cars. In any case it is instructive to calculate how much can be worth as much oil per barrel to trigger a recession. In the case of the U.S. Hamilton makes us the calculation and the result is disturbing: $ 80 per barrel. That means that if current oil prices last long enough U.S. necessarily enter into a new wave of recession, in fact, probably, this is now inevitable. You can repeat the calculation for the case of Spain, although this is only marginally interesting (if the U.S. goes into recession will drag us to all, given the interconnectedness of the Western economies). Let's see what has been the evolution of oil consumption in Spain in recent years.
The graph comes from Oil Watch Monthly ASPO-Netherlands published each month (can be accessed here OWM), and is built with JODI data. Show up to December 2009, and shows a marked downward trend in consumption (as already discussed here ). OWM himself tells us that consumption media in 2007, 2008 and 2009 were, respectively, from 1.59 million barrels per day (Mb / d), 1.54 Mb / d and 1.44 Mb / d. A lack of accurate data, 2010 we estimate that in 2010 the average consumption of oil in Spain was about 1.4 Mb / d. With the current price of $ 115 per barrel have that amounts to about 58.7 billion dollars, an exchange rate dollar / euro to $ 1.40 / € turns out to be about 42 billion euros. Taking Spain's GDP is about 1 billion euros we find that the current oil bill accounts for 4.2% of our GDP. The break value in the case of Spain, would be about $ 137 a barrel, provided when the euro / dollar remains unchanged.
the economy's problems also will have an effect on the ability to generate energy, as already mentioned a few times here. Starting with the oil, is an accepted fact today that oil prices can be neither too high nor too low. If it is too low there are not enough incentives for the development of sources such as tar sands Canada are more expensive to produce, if too high, demand contracted and the economic crisis desencandena, as mentioned. A little more than a years it was accepted that the minimum price was about $ 60 a barrel, after which time the tar sands begin turning a profit, also publicly accepted by representatives of OPEC $ 80 was the upper limit, consistent with the calculation of James Hamilton. therefore had to keep prices at the right place . The problem is that the window of optimal price has been moving over time, and lately spoken 80 to $ 100, in what appears an attempt not to admit he has closed and no suitable price. The seriousness of the matter is that the subsequent price volatility, with predictable large ups and downs to Over the years, means that investment in oil exploration and development is too risky and therefore investors flee from it and this, in turn, will lower our future supply, exacerbating the problems. The impact of instability in the oil ends up affecting all raw materials, the need to use large amounts of oil for extraction and processing. This will cause them also to be somewhat unstable and can be, in the cases of the most affected areas, current problems of disinvestment and further aggravated shortages because of this effect. This problem is particularly acute in the case of coal and uranium. In short, our way of exploiting energy resources in a free market system makes when starting the oil shortage of the latter and other materials is aggravated by a very destructive positive feedback, another nonlinear effect adding to the abrupt down the right side of the Hubbert curve .
interactions between economic and energy system are not only undermining our ability to keep our energies from the past, also are slowing the deployment of energy of the future. The most exemplary case of this effect is the generation problem renewable power and its clash with nuclear energy. I recently participated in a radio debate on the future of nuclear energy (you can see a summary filmed here. Note: Believe it or not, I was not attacked there.) It was clear that the position of some of those advocating renewable energy clashes against some supporters of nuclear energy. For me personally this debate seems a bit sterile, though it is easy to understand its context particularized for the case of Spain. In Spain, thanks largely to the wind farms installed capacity has grown much faster than electricity consumption, which has been accentuated by the decline in consumption that occurred due to crisis in 2009 and stabilization in 2010. The fact is that today many power stations remain idle hours per year because they no longer need its installed capacity, and that is harmful to the economic interests of the utilities to which they belong. These companies, which in many cases are often also shareholders of nuclear power plants, correctly identify the excess renewable energy is hurting their business and charge against them emphasizing their shortcomings, particularly its intermittent and unpredictable. In response, proponents of renewable energy (Which is a more fragmented sector) charged against the other party, and particularly against nuclear energy because of its risks. Amid this debate, no one shall be two basic facts. The first is that electricity is, as posted, between a fifth and a sixth of the total energy consumed in Spain. The second is that the power consumption is not increasing, because electricity is a specialized type of energy but that does not fit all industrial and domestic uses, it makes electricity can not help solve the energy crisis. Therefore investment in this critical sector now stands idle, so that future problems will be more serious, as it happens with exploration and development of new oil fields that we discussed earlier.
Actually, the problem is that the electric car has not arrived, if he had, the total demand for nuclear power and renewable grow and would be happy, without having to compete for the same piece of cake. The thing goes beyond the entelechy of the electric car ( amply discussed in this blog ): Electricity does not allow us to have trucks, bulldozers and heavy machinery in general, lack of energy density and electric battery power, also is inappropriate for use in industrial furnaces and foundries, because it involves consumer goods and prices much more expensive than current options. In short, electricity only cost us a lot to keep competitive industrial production, and again we have a problem of incompatibility between our economic system and the energy bill. As the economic crisis that followed the energy will destroy our industrial base, it will cost more to build and maintain new energy collection systems can also give us a type, the electric, which is not well suited to our needs. It feeds with dire consequences. In the case particular nuclear power advocated by Domenek, it is a large-scale technology, in great need of expertise and large industrial facilities both for supplies and for consumption, and also requires a large installation (mains ) of complex management for distribution. But the deterioration of the financial and the disappearance of the basic industries will become increasingly difficult to maintain. Of course the situation is similar for wind or solar.
What is the solution to these problems? I have none, but what we know for sure is what leads to nothing good is to continue stubborn if they are dogs or hounds.
Salu2,
AMT
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)